Fearful of what a Volodymyr Zelenskiy presidency could mean for Ukraine and its constitutionally-enshrined course toward the European Union and NATO, current government ministers are moving to protect that integration process as best they can before a potential change in leadership later this year.
Front and center in those efforts is Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, Ukraine’s Vice Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration.
Klympush-Tsintsadze – the Ukrainian government’s point person on integrating with the European Union, the West and NATO – told the Kyiv Post in an April 10 interview that she believes the country’s westward pivot could be under threat from a “political newcomer” whom Ukrainians should be more hesitant to place their faith in.
Safeguarding the course
“We have to keep calm and carry on, and focus on our responsibilities,” the deputy prime minister said of her current work, adding that soldiering on despite the ongoing election chaos was a challenge. “We are moving forward,” she said.
On the morning of April 10, before meeting with the Kyiv Post, Klympush-Tsintsadze and the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine had been making preparations to try and protect the country’s strategic Western course, she said.
“We have passed the draft presidential decree to ensure that all the ministries and executive bodies, as well as local authorities, will have their prescribed responsibilities in terms of fulfilling the strategic course that is fixed in the constitution,” she said.
“This is a new kind of document that envisages responsibilities and timelines for everybody… and how we strengthen the institutional capacity in order to carry out the strategic course of EU and NATO membership.”
The majority of the Ukrainian public supports membership of the EU and NATO, according to the latest opinion polls. It is also now enshrined in the country’s constitution and endorsed by the EU and NATO. But there is some anxiety among ministers and observers that this course could still be reversed under a new administration.
For Klympush-Tsintsadze, who seems to never stop traveling, keeping the pro-Europe and pro-NATO message on point has been key, especially during the past several months. But she assures that this messaging is always evidence-based.
“We are constantly working on this around the country… showing that people are already using and benefiting from closeness with the EU and NATO,” she said. One of her priorities has been an information campaign that aims to highlight examples of where Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration is already having an impact on everyday lives, she added.
Growing exports and imports and strengthened business ties, educational exchanges and joint scientific programs are some of the areas that Klympush-Tsintsadze said she has been using to assure the Ukrainian people that the country’s Euro-oriented course is the correct one.
But the Ukrainian people, while broadly committed to Europe and NATO, could be on the brink of rejecting the re-election ambitions of pro-EU, pro-NATO Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko during the second round of the presidential vote on April 21.
He is widely viewed as having insufficiently delivered on post-EuroMaidan Revolution promises. Most analysts and pollsters project that he will lose the election to Zelenskiy, who seems to have galvanized an electorate – especially the young – that feels let down.
Zelenskiy ambiguity
Late in the game, presidential candidate Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his closest associates and business partners are coming under increased scrutiny.
Klympush-Tsintsadze strongly suggests that Zelenskiy cannot be trusted with Ukraine’s westward course, a path and choice that she stresses was secured at great cost to the nation and its people.
“I have analyzed the programs of both candidates. The incumbent president (Poroshenko) has a very clear program of European and NATO integration, it is specified, while the newcomer to politics, he refers to NATO membership through referendum… even though it is already fixed in the constitution,” she said.
“Moreover, I think it’s pretty clear that all the polls are showing that the overwhelming majority of the people are supportive of European integration,” she added. “It’s all about leadership and taking responsibility.”
But Klympush-Tsintsadze warns that there is a risk of deviation from the course that she says the Ukrainian people have already chosen.
“The president has to guarantee adherence to constitutional norms, and I think (there) is a big question mark as to whether Zelenskiy sincerely wants to carry out the Euro-Atlantic course… he doesn’t have any references in his program with regard to European integration and this puzzles me,” she said. “We already have this association agreement with the EU and that has to be carried out.”
“It’s a big responsibility of the government to carry out these plans… And society is not going to allow – if there is a change in power – a new president to change the course and move in another direction,” she warned.
Zelenskiy has given mixed signals on Euro-Atlantic integration. Recently, his campaign did suggest holding a referendum on any final decision regarding Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the EU.
According to Dmytro Razumkov, a political consultant and adviser to Zelenskiy’s presidential campaign, such a move would be intended to strengthen the country’s course westward, not weaken it.
“We are moving toward Europe. It’s a choice Ukrainian society has made,” Razumkov told Interfax-Ukraine on April 1. “It (a referendum) will be a decision of the people of Ukraine, which will be very, very difficult to contest,” he said.
War leader
“Russia is paying very close attention to Ukraine in 2019 and taking it as an opportunity to fight another battle for the minds and souls of the Ukrainian people,” Klympush-Tsintsadze said, referring both to this presidential campaign and the upcoming parliamentary elections in October.
It’s an added complication with higher stakes in play that the country is going through a process of difficult reforms and an election while under the “continuing, ongoing threat and attacks from the Russian Federation,” the minister said.
“The country has done a great job in pushing back the aggressor and localizing the military attack on the contact line – but this has created a pretty false sense of security among the population that does not see all the imminent and immediate threats that we are up against,” she said, adding that an appropriate choice for Commander in Chief is critical right now.
Newcomer Zelenskiy, for his part, fared very well among Ukrainian soldiers in the presidential election’s first round of voting. This sent a strong message to Poroshenko and the country’s military leadership, who have recently been embroiled in corruption scandals relating to defense sector procurements.
On April 7, Zelenskiy outlined his plan for ending Russia’s war against the country during an interview with the Ukraina television channel. He said it had to start with a ceasefire and expressed readiness to begin negotiations with Vladimir Putin. Zelenskiy also argued that the stalled Minsk peace process needs rebooting and that Ukraine would benefit from going on what he called an information offensive.
But Klympush-Tsintsadze is not convinced and argues that the current front-runner is unprepared for dealing with the reality of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Furthermore, the inexperienced Zelenskiy could even be exactly what the Kremlin is dreaming of, she suggested.
“The whole approach of Mr. Zelenskiy… to the idealistic understanding of what exactly is attainable in his potential dialogue with Putin, is very much misleading,” she said.
“You need a great amount of knowledge, understanding, experience and practice in such negotiations in order to withstand the pressure from Russia and to be able to negotiate without seeing a negative impact on Ukraine.”
Voters could also benefit, she suggested, from paying closer attention to Zelenskiy’s associates, such as the businessmen Andriy Palchevsky, Ihor Kolomoisky and the other high-powered individuals connected to the candidate.
Zelenskiy has argued that he is not supported or sponsored by the Ukrainian oligarch and alleged fraudster Kolomoisky, despite their business connections.
“The Ukrainian people do not want to see that behind the glamorous and young so-called politician – so far I do not see him as a politician, a talented comedian but not necessarily a statesman – his closest team, who he is relying on, are not only people from Russian business and Russian citizens, but people with ties to the Russian security services.”
Klympush-Tsintsadze is repeating accusations about Zelenskiy that have gained a degree of traction as the campaign heats up, but that have never been confirmed.
Broken promises
Despite her criticism of Zelenkiy, Klympush-Tsintsadze also recognizes the frustration among ordinary Ukrainians that has led to the current situation, where the incumbent government faces being rejected by voters and replaced by a populist newcomer with little political experience.
“We are not immune to populism, especially here in Ukraine, when people are exhausted by economic hardships… For the thirteenth quarter, the Ukrainian economy is growing, but that does not necessarily translate into the well-being of people,” she admitted.
“The more resources we have, the more we are trying to address the needs of the people… There are expectations for growing wages and so on, but you cannot cover everything with the scarce resources that you have.”
But despite Poroshenko frequently facing accusations of not adequately living up to his promises, the deputy prime minister issued her own warning about populist pledges that, she said, also cannot easily be fulfilled.
“People are eager to have that well-being immediately for themselves… this can be held in promises, but not in the real delivery, and that’s something that irresponsible politicians and populists are not clearly communicating to their voters.”
Ahead of the final round of voting, Klympush-Tsintsadze says that there is a choice between the emotional and the rational.
“I really think – or hope – that the Ukrainian people will demonstrate wisdom and understanding, keeping in mind all of the potential threats that we face.”
