Editor’s Note: This story has been updated to include the final National Exit Poll results.
The National Exit Poll carried out by several prominent pollsters predicts a strong first-round victory for comedian-turned-politician Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the Ukrainian presidential election — but not one strong enough to avoid a runoff.
According to the poll, Zelenskiy received 30.6 percent of the votes, followed by incumbent President Petro Poroshenko with 17.8 percent, and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko with 14.2 percent.
Pro-Russian former Energy Minister Yuriy Boyko took fourth place with 9.7 percent, followed by former Defense Minister Anatoliy Grytsenko with 7.1 percent, former Security Service of Ukraine chief Ihor Smeshko with 6.5 percent, populist lawmaker Oleh Lyashko with 4.7 percent; pro-Russian former Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Vilkul with four percent, and nationalist candidate Ruslan Koshulynskiy with 1.8 percent.
All other candidates polled under 1 percent.
The National Exit Poll predicts that Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Petro Poroshenko will go into the runoff.
Should the official results — which will likely be released on the evening of April 1 — confirm the exit poll’s results, Zelenskiy will face off against Poroshenko in the elections second round on April 21.
The National Exit Poll was carried out by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology and the Razumkov Center.
Several exit polls — including ones by the SOCIS, a sociological firm associated with Poroshenko’s chief strategist Ihor Hryniv, the 1+1 television channel, and the 112 and NewsOne television channels — yielded similar results. All showed Zelenskiy receiving around 30 percent of the vote, followed by Poroshenko with between 17 and 19 percent, and Tymoshenko with roughly 14 percent.
The exit polls have largely confirmed the predictions of recent polls regarding who would take first, second, and third place. However, the surprise of the evening was Zelenskiy significant lead over Poroshenko.
Polls by the Rating Group and the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, released just days before the election, showed Zelenskiy receiving 26.6 and 27.6 percent of decided voters’ support, respectively.
The Rating Group poll showed Poroshenko and Tymoshenko tied for second with 17 percent of the vote. The Democratic Initiatives poll showed Poroshenko with 18.2 percent and Tymoshenko with 12.8 percent.
However, not everyone agrees with the exit polls’ results. Tymoshenko argues that she has actually taken second place and will thus head into the runoff against Zelenskiy.
According to an exit poll by Tymoshenko’s team, Zelenskiy received 27 percent of the vote, followed by her with 20.9 percent, and then Poroshenko with 17.5 percent.
“Regarding exit polls, unfortunately, sociological research has become an instrument of manipulation,” said Serhiy Vlasenko, a lawmaker from Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna party, according to the Ukrainska Pravda news site.
Tymoshenko called on her team to send the results from their polling stations to her headquarters for a parallel vote count.
