There’s not much time left for hesitating: Ukraine’s Air Force desperately needs to start replacing its increasingly worn-out, Soviet-era air fleet — and the deadline is yesterday.
In the next decade, it has to purchase and master entire squadrons of modern combat aircraft, or else it is doomed to lose the capability to defend the Ukrainian skies.
As always, money is a big issue. The air command is now having an extremely difficult time finding relatively inexpensive solutions from all across the world.
According to multiple sources, it appears increasingly likely that Ukraine will go shopping in Brazil for its new fleet. The Latin American nation offers its attack aircraft Embraer EMB 314 Super Tucano, which are increasingly popular on the global market for buyers with limited financial resources.
But that decision has proven hotly controversial in Ukraine’s defense community. While Super Tucano is indeed one of the most affordable candidates, many argue their deployment could have significant strings attached.
These planes were never meant to be used in hard combat, opponents say. They would easily fall prey to Russian air defense in the Donbas, and they are no match for the old Soviet workhorses from Sukhoi and Mikoyan.
On the other hand, the Super Tucanos could become the perfect trainers for the next generation of pilots as Ukraine’s Air Force struggles to switch to Western technologies and military hardware.
A concept picture of the Embraer EMB 314 Super Tucano light attack aircraft
Immense expenses
According to The Military Balance 2020, the authoritative handbook from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, Ukraine currently deploys nearly 125 combat-capable aircraft.
The newest of them are at least 30 years old.
Now even the top command admits the air fleet will reach its operational limits as soon as 2025-2030, no matter how hard they try to extend its life with casual modernization and repairs. This is specifically true when it comes to workhorse fighter jets Sukhoi Su-27 (nearly 34 in active duty) and Mikoyan MiG-29 (nearly 37 used).
Ukraine’s Air Force is addressing this issue a decade late.
According to Kyiv-based consulting agency Defense Express, most of Ukraine’s neighbors — such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, Hungary, Belarus, and Turkey— have already completed modernizing their military air fleets, or are investing very heavily into their rearmaments.
Poland has set the brightest example. It is getting rid of its old Soviet Mikoyan MiG-29s and Sukhoi Su-22s in favor of the most advanced stealth fighter, Northrop Grumman F-35. In early 2020, Warsaw signed a $4.6-billion contract to procure 34 F-35s, and it already operates nearly 50 American-made General Dynamics F-16 fighters.
With its struggling economy, Ukraine can only dream of using such power against Russian supremacy in the air, despite having a constantly growing military budget (almost $5 billion in 2020).
Nonetheless, the Air Force continues lobbying careful plans for major rearmament. But the top command is typically skeptical about these ideas.
In May, the air command published its strategic development concept through 2035, which was almost immediately removed from public access. In the document, the command suggested spending a total of $12 billion in the next 15 years to purchase a brand new modern air force from abroad.
In general, they said, Ukraine is going to need between 72 and 108 multirole 4++ generation fighters like Swedish Saab JAS-39E/F Gripen or General Dynamics F-16 Block 70/72. The problem though is that, for instance, accepting Swedish fighters, which are the cheapest solution on the European market, would cost at least $140 million apiece, according to Defense Express.
In other words, purchasing and deploying a typical 12-strong squadron of such aircraft would claim $1.7 billion — which is nearly 2.5 times the amount of funds allocated for arms procurement and repair for the whole Armed Forces in 2020.
A simpler solution?
The latest buzz focuses on a far less expensive candidate: the Brazilian-made EMB-314 Super Tucano, also called A-29.
This is a light attack aircraft purposefully designed by Embraer to be an affordable solution for low-intensity combat — specifically, for counter-insurgency warfare. It is not a jet — it’s a turboprop aircraft able to gain a cruising velocity of 520 kilometers per hour and with a combat radius of 500 kilometers.
It was initially designed as a simple trainer aircraft, but it can also carry weapons, particularly a 20-millimeter cannon, a 12.7-millimeter machine gun on each wing, the usual bombs, and a variety of missiles, including high-precision projectiles. On its website, the Brazilian manufacturer says Super Tucanos can stand up to 365,000 accumulated hours in the air, which corresponds over 40 years in use.
Nearly 15 militaries have purchased these aircraft — namely Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Afghanistan, which acquired them with the help of the United States. Super Tucanos have already seen some action — Brazil and Colombia have engaged them against drug cartels and the FARC guerrillas in the forests of Amazonia. The U.S-supported Afghan Air Force also successfully threw them into action against the Taliban in 2018.
Experts polled by the Kyiv Post offer generally positive views on the Brazilian attack planes, highlighting their simplicity and serious weaponry as advantages. In particular, the Super Tucano is capable of using 900-meter airstrips, including dirty runways, which is a convenient feature for Ukraine.
However, Super Tucanos were designed for anti-guerrilla warfare against lightly armed insurgents — not heavily armed Russian-backed forces in Donbas. If pitched against the tight Russian air defense grid in the war zone, they wouldn’t stand a chance.
A concert picture of Embraer EMB314 Super Tucano
Hell to pay
But they still could be a good solution to replace Ukraine’s nearly 30 Aero L-39 Albatros trainer jets — which are also planned for retirement after being in use since the early 1970s.
“Super Tucano is a trainer before anything else, rather than a light attack aircraft,” says Taras Chmut, a former marine and chief editor of the Ukrainian Military Portal website.
“A trainer aircraft must be selected with an eye on (the main combat jets operated by the Air Force). While we do not yet know what kind of prime combat aircraft we want to buy, it is unwise to be thinking about trainers.”
“And it is unwise to start the Air Force rearmament with trainers as well. But with all that said, the Super Tucano is a wonderful choice — it is modern, advanced, cheap, and savvy.”
On Aug. 15, the Air Force command confirmed that it had contemplated purchasing Super Tucanos exclusively as trainers — not as a replacement for major Soviet machines like Sukhoi Su-27 fighters or Su-24M and Su-25 attack and close air support aircraft.
According to the Kyiv Post’s sources in the Air Force command, the ultimate decision to purchase any new type of aircraft has not yet been made.
Nonetheless, since 2019, Ukraine has come closer and closer a deal with Brazil.
In late October 2019, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro stated that Ukraine wanted to buy Super Tucanos after a meeting with Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelensky in Japan. And around that time, it became known that Ukrainian pilots, including top Air Force general Serhiy Drozdov, personally took a test flight on the Brazilian planes in Portugal.
Moreover, in October 2020, the Super Tucanos’ producer Embraer is expected to present its aircraft at the AviaSvit-XXI aviation exhibition in Kyiv.
Should such a deal be made, Ukraine’s budget would still have to find a lot of money. Super Tucanos were sold to Afghanistan for nearly $18 million apiece in 2018, so a 12-strong squadron could cost nearly $216 million — which is still nearly 30% of Ukraine’s expenses on military hardware in 2020.
In its 2035 development doctrine, Ukraine’s Air Force stated it wants an entire brigade of modern trainer aircraft — which would consist of 2-4 squadrons.
“Of course, we would love to get and operate a lot of the best the world of aviation can offer now,” Yuriy Ignat, the Air Force spokesman, told the Kyiv Post.
“But this is not even for us to decide. We’re looking forward to having new machines as impatiently as everyone around. The ultimate decision is for the country’s top leadership.”
