You're reading: General Hodges: Russia must let OSCE do its job in monitoring disengagement

LVIV, Ukraine – Amid the ongoing operation of disengagement of manpower and weapons near the Donbas war front town of Zolote, the Ukrainian military command should be keeping society informed of details, as Lieutenant General (retired) Ben Hodges, former U.S. Army Europe commanding general, said on Oct. 31 on the sidelines of the Lviv Security Forum.

“I’m sure that the (Ukrainian) General Staff is very concerned about making sure that on the other side (of the front line, Russian-backed militants) also comply (with the agreement),” Hodges told the Kyiv Post during a press conference.

“There has to be transparency so that people have confidence that this is not just a Ukrainian withdrawal.”

The decision to kick-start the process of step-by-step, mutual withdrawal of forces near Zolote, part of a peace initiative for the war-torn region, was abruptly declared by Ukraine’s leadership on Oct. 29, despite earlier reports of ceasefire violations close to the designated area of pull-out.

According to Ukraine’s military, the disengagement operation is expected to last 3 days and aims to ensure better security for the local civilian population by creating a demilitarized zone 1 square kilometer in the area around Zolote patrolled by Ukrainian law enforcers only.

In the course of the process, the Special Monitoring Mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) confirmed both Ukrainian and Russian-backed troops leaving their respective combat posts with their weapons and relocating to pre-planned positions deeper in their rear fronts.

The disengagement that followed a successful mutual withdrawal operation near the entry point of Stanytsia Luhanska in late July, nonetheless, has drawn fierce criticism and protests from much of Ukrainian society claiming this to be a surrender to the Kremlin and yielding the Ukrainian territory without a fight.

In such a sensitive and controversial situation, the role of OSCE as an observer keeping an eye also on whether Russian-backed militants withdraw too is especially important, according to Hodges.

However, the most recent developments in the war zone show that Russia and its proxies are impeding the organization’s monitoring activities.

A Ukrainian soldier looks through a night vision device as he keeps watch in Zolote, eastern Ukraine, on Sept. 10, 2019. In the town, Ukrainian and Russian-backed military positions are sometimes as close as 50 meters from each other. (Oleg Petrasiuk)

“So far, the Russian Federation has not allowed OSCE to do its job,” Hodges told the Kyiv Post.

“I think that the international community, specifically Germany, France, the United States, should put pressure on the Russian Federation to allow OSCE to do its job.”

So at the most strategic level, the greatest danger is now that the West “does not keep the pressure on Russia to live up to its agreements to respect OSCE,” Hodges added.

And in this regard, great powers like Germany must be playing an important role. Specifically, this is because it was Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the currently serving Germany’s federal president, who in 2016 invented an instrument of giving a go to the stalled implementation of Minsk accords known as the controversial “Steinmeier Formula” and eventually accepted by Kyiv on Oct. 1.

“(Steinmeier) has his name on (the formula),” former U.S. Army commander in Europe said.

“There’s a burden of responsibility on Germany to hold Russia accountable. Otherwise, the Steinmeier Formula is an empty bottle.” 

Hodges also offered a somewhat more moderate view regarding the public criticism towards President Volodymyr Zelensky and military command over what many believe to be a Ukrainian withdrawal and new steps towards a “capitulation” in Donbas.

From his point of view, the disengagement poses no threat to Ukranian defense on the front as the Ukrainian command has surely taken care of their new operational sites to continue fulfilling their missions in the war zone.

“I don’t know the specifics of how the General Staff plans to re-designate defense positions and so on,” he said.

“But I am very confident that they will have taken this into account. They will have improved the logistical support, as well as the ability to protect all their soldiers and the citizens that live in the area.”

Meanwhile, amid ongoing disengagement in Zolote, Zelensky on Oct. 31 asserted that the process of mutual withdrawal was to get started on Nov. 4 near another pre-planned front line spot of Petrivske in the Donetsk Oblast.

Yet another successful step in Donbas is also expected to draw nearer another Normandy Four summit of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany, during which the Ukrainian leadership hopes to produce a roadmap to a full-fledged peaceful settlement with the Kremlin over Donbas.

Notably, striking an acceptable deal at the table of negotiations will be of extreme complexity — since Russia is not truly interested in leaving Ukraine alone without securing major gains for itself at the strategic level.

“The Kremlin has zero interest in a peaceful resolution of the situation that does not give them the strategic outcome of keeping Crimea and continuing to undermine the sovereignty of Ukraine,” Hodges said.

“No matter what negotiations are handing, that will be their intention.”

Nonetheless, Russia’s threat to Ukraine still unfolds far beyond occupied Crimea and Donbas, still very much focusing also on the maritime domain. The Kremlin’s desire to monopolize the Azov Sea and push Ukraine off the Black Sea hasn’t gone anywhere.

“Russian navy attempt to disrupt Odesa to keep the pressure on Ukraine’s coastline and maritime trade,” Hodges also told journalists.

“So Ukraine with its neighbors — Romania, Georgia, as well as NATO maritime forces — have got to work together in the Black Sea to ensure freedom of navigation. But the international community should also put pressure on Russia to stop its illegal activity: the seizure of Ukrainian vessels, obviously, the periodic creation of no-go areas in the western Black Sea for training exercises. These are all deliberate efforts to put pressure on Odesa specifically and on Ukraine (in general).”

A girl hugs her grandmother on the way home from school in Zolote 4, eastern Ukraine, on Dec. 13, 2017. (Oleg Petrasiuk)

Even bigger danger lies in the fragile resilience of Ukrainian society and its will to stay united against the outward threat. All the torrents of lies, fake news, and disinformation that the Kremlin was pouring on Ukraine were aimed at undermining the Ukrainian society and the Ukrainian government, Hodges said.

“The best defense against that kind of attack by the Kremlin is a media that is aggressive, honest, and holds leaders and institutions accountable,” he added.

“The second pillar is a judicial system the is fair and lives up to the rule of law. The third part is that the Verkhovna Rada has to have its visibility of defense spending. Transparency of the budget is very important so that Ukrainian citizens are confident that the money they spend investing in defense is giving their soldiers the best equipment, the best training, and the best possibility to succeed and to survive.” 

“This is an important part of this resilience. If Ukrainian people lose confidence in their government and their military, then we will have a really difficult time stopping the Kremlin’s effort to break the Ukrainian society.” 

The Lviv Security Forum, one of Ukraine’s key foreign policy and security platforms, discusses the Kremlin’s threat to European democracies at its third annual meeting, taking place between Oct. 30 and Nov. 1 at Lviv’s Ukrainian Catholic University.

The forum traditionally presented in partnership with the Kyiv Post is titled “Russia in Europe: old mistakes and new challenges.”

This year, the forum welcomes over 200 experts and high profile officials from over 10 nations, including the United States, Great Britain, Latvia, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Finland, Spain, and Germany.