You're reading: Hours before new cease-fire attempt in Donbas, omens look bad

Fresh fighting broke out in the battle-weary front line town of Avdiyivka overnight on Feb. 19, a day before another attempt to bring peace to eastern Ukraine was due to start.

A Kyiv Post reporter in Avdiyivka said that overnight the old part of the city was hit by mortar fire coming from the south, where Russian-backed forces are positioned. The opposing sides exchanged sporadic artillery fire at times on Feb. 19, and there was the sound of shots from machine guns and assault rifles throughout the day.

At least eight fresh shell impact craters were visible in the private housing sector near the railway line that runs through the town, the reporter said.

The continued fighting in the town throws into doubt the prospects for a new cease-fire agreement struck at a meeting between foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany during the Munich Security Conference in Germany on Feb. 18. The cease-fire is due to start on Feb. 20.

Announcing the new cease-fire, the foreign ministers stressed that no political process could start in eastern Ukraine without a cease-fire and the withdrawal of heavy artillery from the front lines.

But Oleksandr Zakharchenko, the leader of the Russian-backed forces that have seized control of part of Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, said in a defiant statement just hours before the foreign ministers’ meeting that he was not bound by the terms of the Minsk agreements with regard to the withdrawal of heavy weapons – one of the key elements of the peace deal.

Speaking at a press conference on Feb. 17, Zakharchenko cut over comments by Alexander Hug, the deputy leader of the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, saying “We don’t have to do anything except ensure the security of our state, and of our citizens, and we don’t have to do anything more for anyone.”

Hug had just commented that as signatories of the Minsk peace agreements of Feb. 11, 2015, both Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnytsky, the leader of Russian-backed forces that have seized control of part of Luhansk Oblast, were obliged to pull back their heavy weapons from the front line.

Hug was noting that he didn’t expect the move to be carried out unilaterally when Zakharchenko interrupted him. The comments of the Russian-installed leader in Donetsk were greeted with applause from the press conference audience.

“I officially declare that I as head of the Donetsk People’s Republic will not give an order to withdraw any artillery system, any tank, any mortar from the front line until we are sure that the Ukrainian military have withdrawn their weapons,” Zakharchenko said.

The Minsk Protocol, the ceasefire deal between Ukraine, Russia and the Russian-backed forces that have seized control in parts of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, was signed on Sept. 5, 2014, and stipulates the withdrawal of all heavy weapons by the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed forces by an equal distance from the front lines.

The agreement was further reaffirmed at a meeting in Minsk on Feb. 11, 2015, during which the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany thrashed out a protocol on implementing the previous peace plan. The new protocol was signed by Zakharchenko and Plotnytsky.

According to the new protocol, both sides had to withdraw artillery systems with calibers of 100mm or above 50 kilometers from the contact line, while Grad multiple rocket systems had to be withdrawn 70 kilometers, and Tornado-S, Uragan and Smerch missile systems had to be withdrawn 140 kilometers away from the front.

However, the Russian-backed forces broke the cease-fire agreement within hours, and on Feb. 15, 2015 started an assault on the Ukrainian-controlled town of Debalstevo in Donetsk Oblast.

The town fell to the Russian-backed forces days later, with tank units from Russia’s 5th Guards Tank Brigade out of Buryatia in the Russian Far East taking part in the battle.

Russia still denies that its regular troops have fought or are fighting in Ukraine, although due to overwhelming evidence these denials are now known to be false.

The atmosphere at the Feb. 17 briefing was tense.

“I want to know who in the OSCE will take responsibility if we withdraw our weapons, and they (the Ukrainian side) does not?” Zakharchenko said to Hug.

Zakharchenko claimed that the Ukrainian military would try to take over a number of settlements in the buffer zone in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts.

“According to our intelligence service, Kyiv has prepared a plan under which the Ukrainian security forces are going to capture a series of ‘gray zones,’” Zakharchenko said at the Feb, 17 press conference, adding that “my signature will not be put (under the Minsk agreement) until we are sure that (they) are playing by our rules.”

Hug said that there have been losses among soldiers and the civilian population on both sides. He said that the OSCE would objectively describe the situation in Donbas, using only factual information.

Hug also urged the leaders of the Russian-backed forces to continue seeking a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

However, Zakharchenko again threatened to take control of more Ukrainian territory.

“I’d like to add that we have always said the liberation of the occupied territory of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is our priority, and we have always said that it is desirable to do it by political means,” Zakharchenko said.

“If someone does not understand this, I want to remind them that we can do this by military means.”

Additional reporting by Will Ponomarenko in Avdiyivka, Donetsk Oblast.