You're reading: If Russia wages all-out war, non-NATO member Ukraine is on its own

BRUSSELS – After almost five years of Russian war against Ukraine, tensions are higher after Russian Coast Guard ships on Nov. 25 attacked and then seized three Ukrainian vessels as they tried to cross the Kerch Strait connecting the Black and Azov Sea.

On Nov 26 at 10 a.m., NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg talked with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko about the developments. Stoltenberg agreed to Poroshenko’s request for an extraordinary meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission at the ambassadorial level in Brussels. Also, Ukrainian Ambassador to NATO Vadym Prystaiko gave a briefing, showing intercepted audio and video evidence.

“This incident is a reminder that there is a war going on in Ukraine. It has been going on for more than four years. The allied position has been consistent. Since 2014, all allies have condemned Russia’s aggressive actions in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said during press-conference.

Everybody hopes for “de-escalation, for calm and restraint,” as Stoltenberg said. “We have to avoid that this situation is coming out of control and becoming even more dangerous… we support all efforts to find a political, negotiated solution to the crisis in and around Ukraine.”

The hopes for peace come with the understanding that, in case Russia wages a full-scale war, Ukraine is alone since it’s not a member of the NATO military alliance.

“We constantly assess what more we can do because Russia has to understand that its actions have consequences,” Stoltenberg said in response to a Kyiv Post question about concrete actions the 29-nation alliance can take if the situation deteriorates. The security general did not specify the consequences.

NATO demands that Russia ensure unhindered access to Ukrainian ports and allow freedom of navigation for Ukraine in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait, as well as the immediate release of the 23 Ukrainian sailors and three ships it seized.

Allies also discussed Poroshenko’s declaration of martial law in Ukraine, supported by parliament. It will be imposed for a 30-day period starting Nov. 28 in 10 oblasts near Russia and the Russian-controlled Transnistria area of Moldova.

During his phone conversation, Poroshenko assured Stoltenberg that martial law will not hinder democratic institutions and will not interfere with the March 31 presidential election. “For NATO allies, this is, of course, important, that the president so clearly says that the martial law will not create any problems for the political democratic processes in Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said.

Prystaiko, the Ukrainian ambassador to NATO, told journalists that on Dec. 4 a NATO-Ukraine Commission meeting at the level of foreign ministers will take place with Georgia. “It will be similar to NATO-Ukraine Commission during the NATO summit at the level of heads of states and government – together with Georgia,” said Prystaiko.

This format was created to avoid Hungarians blocking any meeting of the commission at a level above ambassadorial. Budapest is still protesting Ukraine’s new education law mandating that public schools teach classes in Ukrainian, not in minority languages. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban considers the measure discriminatory against the more than 100,000 ethnic Hungarians living mainly in western Ukraine’s Zakarpattya Oblast. To solve the dispute, parties started talks but have come to no agreement.

The European Union will discuss the situation on Nov. 27 in committee. Russia has been waging a war in eastern Ukraine since 2014, starting with the military invasion and illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula, and extending to the eastern Donbas, a conflict that has killed more than 10,300 people and forced at least 1.5 million Ukrainians to flee their homes.