A serious escalation in Russia’s long-running war on Ukraine started on Jan. 29 in Avdiyivka, a city with a pre-war population of 35,000 people on the edge of Ukrainian government-controlled territory in the eastern Donbas.
The city, located 700 kilometers southeast of Kyiv, is close to the demarcation line and just 6 kilometers to the north of the city of Donetsk – a stronghold of Russian-backed forces in the Donbas.
According to official reports, eight Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and dozens wounded since the fighting intensified in the war that has claimed at least 10,000 lives. Media have also reported the deaths of two civilians due to heavy shelling of residential areas in Avdiyivka.
The fighting has also badly disrupted services in the city, with electricity first being cut, and then heating and water supplies being shut down.
Here are key facts about the escalation:
Strategic importance
Avdiyivka is of strategic importance for both sides. Anastasia Magazova, a correspondent for German broadcaster Deutsche Welle who is currently reporting from Avdiyivka, writes that the city is home to the Avdiyivka Coke and Chemical Plant, which is one of the biggest coke producers in Europe and an important supplier of coke for Ukraine’s steel industry. Avdiyivka is also a major transport hub in Donetsk Oblast. According to the Minsk agreements, Avdiyivka should be government-controlled territory. The city has been shelled by Russian-backed armed groups on numerous occasions, and has been a flashpoint for fighting ever since the Minsk peace agreements, which were supposed to impose a ceasefire, were first signed in September 2014.
Civilians attacked
Russian-backed fighters started launching infantry attacks near Avdiyivka on Jan. 29. Over the next day, the fighting escalated to shelling by Grad rockets, with residential districts in Avdiyivka coming under fire. There have also been reports of increased fighting near the southern Azov Sea port city of Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast, and along parts of the front line in Luhansk Oblast. Social media users in Donetsk have posted several videos of Grad rockets being launched from within residential districts in Donetsk, presumably in the direction of Avdiyivka. There is also evidence that residential districts in Donetsk itself have been hit by return fire from Ukrainian forces.
Humanitarian crisis
The humanitarian situation in Avdiyivka has deteriorated rapidly. As a result of the shelling, critical infrastructure in the city was destroyed, resulting in a humanitarian crisis: many civilians have no water, electricity, or heating – a result of damage to the Donetsk water filtration station and the shutting down of the coke plant after it was shelled (the plant generates much of the heat supply for the city.) At the same time, temperatures plunged overnight on Jan. 29 to –18 degrees Celsius. The Ukrainian government has since brought in field kitchens and heated tents to provide food and shelter to city residents affected by the fighting. The delegation of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Ukraine has expressed concern over the situation and is sending humanitarian help. Meanwhile, Ukraine prepared to evacuate up to 12,000 people from the city, according to Ukrainian official sources. Reporters on the ground say that some inhabitants are already leaving the city.
Reason for attacks
The attacks on Avdiyivka by the Russian-backed armed groups could be a response to Ukrainian advances into new positions in the “gray zone” between the two sides, some observers say. Christopher Miller, a correspondent for RFE/RL, writes that “since mid-December Ukraine’s armed forces have edged further into parts of the gray zone in or near the war-torn cities of Avdiyivka, Debaltseve, Dokuchaievsk, Horlivka and Mariupol, shrinking the space between them and the (Russian-backed) fighters.” Alexander Hug, the principal deputy chief monitor of the OSCE SMM to Ukraine, quoted in RFE/RL article, said that “the direct result of forward moves is an escalation in tensions.” Ukraine, however, responded that troops were not violating the Minsk agreements as they were not crossing the demarcation line and were moving inside territory that was designated as government-controlled under the Minsk agreements. The Ukrainian regional administrations in the war zone also say that it is vital to exert government control over towns in the gray zone in order to stop large-scale smuggling.
15 minute cease-fire
Cease-fire guarantees given by Donetsk-based forces and the Russian military did not last. There were several attempts to establish a cease-fire, but they were broken after 15 minutes or less, according to Hromadske journalists reporting from Avdiyivka. This was also reported by Pavlo Zhebrivsky, the head of Ukraine’s military and civil administration in the government-controlled part of Donetsk oblast. A video by Anastasia Magazova documented ceasefire violations during the daytime on Jan. 31.
Timing of escalation
Both sides blame each other for the escalation. The surge in fighting took place during an official visit by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to Germany, one of the “Normandy Four” countries (Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia). Poroshenko cut his official visit to Berlin short and held a briefing with military representatives to direct the government’s response. Ukraine’s foreign ministry issued a statement saying that “the current escalation in Donbas is a clear indication of Russia’s continued disregard of its commitments under the Minsk agreements.” In turn, Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, accused Ukrainian soldiers of launching an attack on Russian-backed fighters across the Avdiyivka frontline. Paradoxically, Russian media like TV channel Zvezda also blamed Ukraine for shelling Avdiyivka itself, implying that Ukraine was attacking a city in its own territory. Russian media also continues to produce fake news reports: the same TV channel Zvezda, for example, published a photo of Avdiyivka by Kostiantyn Reutskyi, a Ukrainian activist, and falsely claimed it showed damage to a town controlled by Russian-backed forces.
Source: The summary was prepared by Vitaliy Rybak, Volodymyr Yermolenko and Alya Shandra of Euromaidan Press, using material from Internews Ukraine, and first published online by EuroMaidan Press on Feb. 1.
