BRUSSELS – When the foreign ministers of the member states of NATO meet in Brussels on Dec. 4-5, they’ll be trying to come up with some predictable and understandable responses in some unpredictable and confusing events.
The array of security challenges facing the ministers includes Russia’s destabilizing behavior, violent extremism in the Middle East and North Africa, and continuing instability in Afghanistan.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, discussing the meeting’s agenda at a press conference on Dec. 3, started with Russia, the closest source of problems for the European continent. Moscow is currently causing the allies concern in two major areas – the violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces or INF Treaty, and the threat it poses to Ukraine and Georgia.
In defiance of the INF treaty, signed in 1987 between the former Soviet Union and the United States, Russia has developed, produced, tested and deployed a new intermediate-range missile, known as the SSC-8., which can reach European capitals.
The new weapon mobile and easy to hide, and can be armed with nuclear warheads. It reduces the time that an attack can be detected to minutes, thereby lowering the time for a response to be weighed – and perhaps for mistakes to be made.
“(The INF treaty) has been put in jeopardy by Russia,” Stoltenberg said at the Dec. 3 press conference.
“The United States is in full compliance with the INF Treaty. There are no new U.S. missiles in Europe. But there are new Russian missiles. Russia must take immediate steps to ensure full compliance with the INF Treaty in a transparent and verifiable way. NATO is a strong advocate for arms control to make us all safer.”
Stoltenberg said the relationship with Moscow was “difficult,” but that dialogue had to continue.
“Even if you don’t believe in an improved relationship with Russia in the foreseeable future, even then we need political dialogue with Russia to manage this difficult relationship.”
Another worrying issue for the allies is the recent incident in the Kerch Strait, in which Russia captured three Ukrainian navy vessels and 24 Ukrainian sailors as they attempted to sail from Odesa to Mariupol via the Kerch Strait.
The issue will be discussed during a special meeting with the foreign ministers of Ukraine and Georgia.
But even the very format of the meeting testifies to tensions in the alliance over Ukraine: Hungary continues to block meetings of the Ukraine-NATO Commission because of a disagreement over a new education law introduced by Ukraine. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said the law discriminates against the more than 100,000 ethnic Hungarians living mainly in western Ukraine’s Zakarpattya Oblast. The parties have started talks to solve the dispute, but have come to no agreement.
Turning to developments in the Kerch Strait, Stoltenberg said there was no justification for the use of force and said he hoped Russia would end its effective blockade of the Azov Sea for Ukrainian shipping.
“We call for calm and restraint,” Stoltenberg said. “Russia must release the Ukrainian sailors and ships. It must also allow freedom of navigation and unhindered access to the Ukrainian ports in the Sea of Azov. Ukrainian vessels, military as well as civilian, have the right to navigate through the Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov.”
Stoltenberg said not only Ukraine but Georgia faces serious security challenges from Russia: “We will continue to give both countries practical and political support.
Stoltenberg dodged the question when asked about Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s request for NATO ships to be sent to the Azov Sea.
“NATO has already increased its presence in the Black Sea significantly, with more NATO ships at sea than in the previous year, (and) we have air policing,” he said.
“We have more presence in the Black Sea in general, and we will closely monitor the situation in that region also in the light what we saw a few days ago.”
Stoltenberg repeated the alliance’s verbal support for Ukraine, but gave no indication that NATO would take any new actions in response to Russian aggression against Ukraine in the Kerch Strait and Black Sea.
“We provide strong political but also strong practical support to Ukraine,” he said.
“Since the illegal annexation of Crimea we have provided support in different forms, help (the Ukrainians) to modernize their armed forces, command and control. Several allies provided bilateral support, training and equipment. We also provide political support, supporting their territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
“We support efforts to find a peaceful solution.”
