You're reading: Nord Stream 2 project will undermine transatlantic unity, US expert says in Lviv

LVIV, Ukraine — The Nord Stream 2, a Russian-advocated project to construct another 1,200-kilometer gas supply pipeline to Germany through the Baltic Sea, has the real potential to make Russia a dominant outside actor in Europe without offering economic advantages to European gas consumers, according to Reka Szemerkenyi, executive vice president of the Center for European Policy Analysis, a U.S.-based think tank.

“The Nord Stream 2 has the potential and ability to fundamentally redefine the entire European energy landscape for a long time,” the expert said as she presented the CEPA’s report on the divisive Russian venture at Lviv Security Forum on Oct. 25.

The Nord Stream 2 project is a major expansion of an existing pipeline that will allow Russia to transport directly to Germany 110 billion cubic meters of gas via the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine’s pipelines and increasing Germany’s dependence on Russian gas.

“This is the pipeline project that, on one hand, (gives Russia) a defining position of a dominant outside actor (in Europe), not just an energy supplier. On the other hand, equally importantly, this project has the potential to place the future of Ukraine on Russia’s political will.”

According to the expert, there’s nothing new in the fact that Russia uses its abundant natural gas supplies to the West as its political tool since the very beginning of the post-Cold War era. However, as she noted, the previous Russian efforts in this aspect, despite being rather painful and divisive for Europe, were of rather tactical and very limited nature at the Transatlantic level.

Nord Stream 2 opens a new stage of Russia’s weaponization of gas supplies. The project’s potential influence on Europe is so immense, Szemerkenyi said, that it will divide the post-Cold War timeline into two periods, before and after Nord Stream 2.

Besides, Russia’s aggressive promotion of the project is greatly augmented with a massive propaganda campaign that has spread numerous myths about the European gas market and Moscow’s role in it.

Among them is that Europe now tremendously needs more natural gas. But, according to a CEPA study, that suggestion is highly questionable.

“Another very important element of this discussion on the European level is that the North Stream 2 project is offering economic advantages for the European Union and definitely for its consumers,” Szemerkenyi added. “Especially given the imminent shutdown decisions for European nuclear plants. What we can see, however, is that the facts are showing the opposite: it is not a project that will offer an economically advantageous situation for European consumers and customers.”

Another myth that Russia promotes is that the Ukrainian gas pipeline network s unreliable and poorly managed and that there must be an alternative corridor for the Russia-Europe gas supplies.

“But if we look at the reality, however,” Szemerkenyi cited the CEPA report. “What we can see is that the Ukrainian transmission system has the capacity of 146 billion cubic meters per year, and it is capable of operating the designed capacity during peak periods as well.”

“There had been incidents that caused disruptions in the Ukrainian transmission systems, but statistics underline that this incident rate in the Ukrainian side in the last 20 years has never been above 0.06 incidents per 1,000 kilometers, whereas if you compare this incident rate with that of Russia, that incident rate will 0.22 incidents per 1,000 kilometers. The Ukrainian level is four times lower than Russian.”

The annual Lviv Security Forum is held between Oct. 24-26 at Lviv’s Ukrainian Catholic University.

Headlined “The economy of war or the war of economy?,” the forum gathers top security and defense experts and policymakers from at least 10 nations to discuss challenges of Russia’s economic warfare amid its growing military expansion in the world.