It’s time for me as the Chief Editor of the Kyiv Post to raise the Periscope again and to survey the scene. And what do I see on the stormy sea before me.
Well, Putin is still in his bellicose mode. But has encountered a united and resolute West, which is making it clear to him that his threatening, or should I say, politically blackmailing, gambit has not paid off.
The West has demonstrated to him that it will stand firm, and not bend and allow divisions within itself to allow him to gain the upper hand.
So, despite all the huffing and puffing, deployment of forces on Ukraine’s border, setting of ultimatums, Putin, who some have regarded as a rational actor, and even ace chess player, appears to have shot himself in the foot.
With its threatening tone, centered around the future status of Ukraine, Putin’s Kremlin has in effect painted itself in a corner, isolated itself further, and is being forced to eat humble pie.
Putin, faced with this, in effect, fiasco of a strategy, is facing more and more questions at home and within his own entourage about the utility or damage caused by his relentless brinkmanship.
The unforeseen complications in Kazakhstan, Russia’s ally and, yet also, the soft underbelly of it’s hegemonic sprawl in the post-Soviet space, has also distracted attention from the confrontation with the West.
It is reassuring for Ukraine to see how the West has united, finally, in standing up to Putin's saber-rattling and extortion.
It may also have concentrated the minds of those western politicians who were more prepared to seek accommodation with Putin’s Kremlin rather than face the stark realities which Moscow’s anti-western, imperialistic, and ultimately self-serving Eurasian self-dentificatio entails.
The East-West talks are not yet over, but it is clear that the Kremlin will be forced to find a face-saving way to retreat. Perhaps it will want to return to the past, and claim that they persuaded Washington to re-new the IMF treaty which Moscow itself broke abandoned in 2019.
Because, as Washington has no doubt reminded Moscow, we’re talking, not only about the deployment of NATO rockets in Eastern Europe , but the existence of such Russian threats in its Kaliningrad region and in the Black and Baltic Seas.
On the home front, it’s been a quiet season because of Christmas and the New Year. The ongoing struggle between President Zelensky’s camp and the de facto alliance created by his oligarchic opponents has for a time been on hold.
Former president Petro Poroshenko, however, is still seeking the headlines in defying the orders of the law enforcement agencies to appear before them as requested. Last month, he effectively fled the country rather than face the music.
Although Poroshenko presents himself as a victim of political persecution, he seems to have a short memory, and little respect for Ukraine’s legal system and its procedures.
Hardly surprisingly, I should add, for someone who while he was president flouted legal and constitutional norms and deprived Ukrainian citizen, former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili, of his rights, by first arresting him as an outspoken critic, stripping him of his citizenship and then deporting him.
Poroshenko proclaims he is not subject to “Zelensky’s-time frame” for his return to Ukraine. He makes a mockery of the fact that as a former president he should show an example by respecting the law and due process, not leaving the country but facing up to the charges leveled against him and standing his ground legally.
Today we have read even in the respected Brussels publication Politico that, he while wanted for questioning in Kyiv and effectively a fugitive, Poroshenko has appeared in Brussels and sought to rally support and favor. And at a time when these sorts of actions are certainly not helping Ukraine’s reputation among its supporters.
Politico wrote on Jan. 12: “If there was ever an opportune moment to remind everyone of the fact Ukraine is still effectively an oligarchy, it’s clearly not now. For Poroshenko the timing may be opportunistic, but it could hardly be worse for NATO allies, who’ve gone far out on a limb to defend Ukraine and its positioning toward the West, and threatened Russia with sanctions if it again attacks its neighbor. Poroshenko was elected president after the Maidan Revolution in 2014 with the support of the West, which embraced his government and stepped in with emergency financial and military assistance.”
Politico concludes: “No joke: For Western powers, the attention on Ukraine’s internal political squabbles and dysfunction will be a deeply unwanted distraction from the effort to rally all NATO allies in confronting Putin, who has amassed more than 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border. It’s also not clear how European officials can help Poroshenko — any appeal to Zelensky’s office will likely yield the reply that in Ukraine, as per EU democratic standards, criminal cases are handled independently by the prosecutor’s office, not directed by politicians.
We shall continue to watch this political space, and draw appropriate, and objective, conclusions.
