With the Kyiv Post getting back into its stride, we feel it’s important to let our readers have a good sense of what’s happening overall so as to better understand the context and dynamics of what we’re writing about.
For this reason, we want to introduce a new weekly column called Periscope which will look back over the developments of the previous week or so, in order to take stock of what is happening and help us look ahead.
So, let’s begin by setting the current scene and by sketching the contours of the last fortnight. Because it’s the first in terms of catching up, and given the complex scope of the subject, this initial Periscope will be somewhat longer and have the feel of an op-ed piece.
Nervous atmospherics
In fact, much has been happening on both the domestic and external fronts. Tensions have been running high because of the continuing threat of a new Russian attack on Ukraine. This has generated a flurry of diplomatic activity.
At the same time, the intensification of political infighting within the country increased fears that the situation might be exploited by internal and external forces, thus undermining Ukraine’s ability to defend itself from within.
At his meeting with representatives of the media on Nov. 26, President Volodymyr Zelensky unexpectedly announced he had been warned that a coup d’etat, set for Dec. 1, was being prepared by Russian agents. Meanwhile, internal forces opposed to him declared they would launch a continuous Maidan-like protest against his administration in Kyiv on the same day.
Fortunately, in the first days of December, the country was able to breathe a sigh of relief. Although the military threat from Russia has remained, Ukraine’s Western allies have expressed their strong solidarity and warned the Kremlin of the very serious consequences that any further aggression would engender. President Joe Biden’s administration has taken the lead in this.
The coup did not materialize. As for the protest, it drew several thousand people and was peaceful. Despite the claims of its organizers that it was uniting diverse groups into a new anti-Zelensky alliance and would mark a turning point in the political struggle, it did not differ much from the periodic anti-government demonstrations that Kyiv is used to.
Persisting woes
Meanwhile, the long-standing challenges remain: economic difficulties and reliance on external financial support, the price for which is conditionality, with its positive and problematic sides, and the growing debt burden; the perennial complications in the energy sector compounded by Ukraine ending its dependence on supplies from Russia while several oligarchs dominate in this vital sphere; and the COVID 19 pandemic, which has eased somewhat in recent weeks since the re-imposition of stricter quarantine measures.
Ukraine’s partners continue to see corruption as the country’s key internal problem, which also impacts its image in the eyes of the outside world. But more specifically, what have been the main issues around which politics have revolved, and around which the main battle lines have been drawn?
At the top of the list is the reform of the legal system, from the courts to the law enforcement agencies. This is critical, but remains a major hurdle because of the fierce resistance from those protecting vested interests. And, interconnected with it, is breaking up the oligarchic setup which has become such a distasteful feature of independent Ukraine’s reality. Without tackling the first, the second task becomes all the more problematic.
Zelensky has moved ahead on both fronts, though his opponents question his motives and methods. To get around the obstruction he faced in the courts and in the Ukrainian parliament – the Verkhovna Rada – he empowered the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) and has relied on it to provide justification for issuing presidential decrees on contested matters.
The president has locked horns with the Constitutional Court and other judicial entities regarded as corrupt and is attempting to revamp the legal system according to internationally prescribed norms. But the implementation of his judicial reform law passed in July is being obstructed and the trial of strength continues.
Confronting the oligarchs
Earlier this year, in an unprecedented and politically highly risky move, Zelensky took on the oligarchs. In July he introduced his “anti-oligarch” bill to curb what he sees as the excessive influence of the country’s richest individuals on the country’s politics, economy and media. Although the president’s ratings had being falling in the polls, and fissures had appeared in his Servant of the People majority faction in the parliament, he nevertheless managed to get the controversial law adopted in September, securing a comfortable 279 votes of the 424 currently available.
This has been treated as a declaration of war by the oligarchs, and despite their own differences and rivalry, they appear to have formed an implicit unholy alliance against Zelensky and have given one another’s mouthpieces coverage in the media they respectively control.
If President Zelensky was initially preoccupied with the oligarchs Petro Poroshenko, Ihor Kolomoisky, Dmytro Firtash and Viktor Medvedchuk, he has now ended up in a bitter standoff with the richest businessman in Ukraine, Rinat Akhmetov, who is a major power broker because of his economic and political clout through the energy sector and media.
Initially, Akhmetov appeared to be getting the upper hand by winning over a number of top political and media figures who began questioning the competence of the Zelensky administration and calling for parliamentary and presidential elections.
Zelensky’s counter-offensive
But in late November Zelensky hit back. He convened a marathon meeting with 30 representatives of the media, including some of his staunchest critics from the media run by the oligarchs. It was important not only because of the information and insights, which emerged from the often-heated exchanges, but also because it demonstrated that the beleaguered president was confident enough to face his detractors and appeal over their heads to the public directly.
Zelensky warned that the Kremlin is not only threatening Ukraine once again by building up its military forces on the country’s borders, but also that it wants to undermine it from within. He then delivered a bombshell – that Ukrainian intelligence had gotten wind that Russia was seeking to draw Akhmetov into a plot to stage a coup in Ukraine at the beginning of December. The oligarch promptly and vocifero usly denied the accusation.
Furthermore, Zelensky effectively defused a potentially explosive accusation that had been leveled against him by his opponents – that his administration, or a Russian mole within it, had scuppered a secret Ukrainian intelligence plan to lure around Russian mercenaries from the notorious Wagner force into an ambush on Ukrainian territory. He explained why in the name of national interests and security concerns he himself had vetoed the operation.
On Dec. 1, the president used his annual address to the Verkhovna Rada to get his messages across to the nation. It coincided with the midway point in his five-year presidency, and he was clearly determined to demonstrate that he will pursue his declared agenda. His second spirited and upbeat major public appearance within the space of a week seems to have allowed him to regain the political initiative.
The following day, another potential obstacle was cleared when 268 deputies finally voted to adopt the State Budget for 2022. The parliament also delivered a further blow against the oligarchs, particularly Akhmetov, by raising iron ore mining rents and tripling the industrial carbon dioxide emission tax.
While the conflict between Zelensky and Akhmetov has been intensifying, and the public has been urged by the president’s enemies and supporters to decide whether his record so far means that the glass is half full or half empty, there has been good news on the financial front.
O n Nov. 22, the Ukrainian government secured a long-awaited loan tranche worth nearly $700 million from the International Monetary Fund and an extension of its $5 billion stand-by program until next June. The EU has approved a decision to provide €31 million for strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities within the newly established European Peace Facility. And on Dec. 10 and 17, the World Bank will consider issuing two tranches of up to $500 million to Ukraine under the Ukraine Emergency COVID-19 Response and Vaccination Project and €300 million under the Second Economic Recovery Development Policy Loan for Ukraine.
This week Ukraine was again at the center of international attention as Presidents Biden and Vladimir Putin held an emergency virtual summit to defuse tensions. Tense and uncertain times when timely and balanced reporting is so important.
