Since his election in 2014, President Petro Poroshenko has presented himself as Ukraine’s top corruption fighter, the leader who pulled the nation from the economic abyss of his predecessor’s disastrous four-year rule, and the man who will lead the nation to victory in Russia’s war.
But a recent presidential poll, if accurate, shows most Ukrainians simply aren’t buying it — and aren’t happy with his record. He came in fourth place behind potential rivals Yulia Tymoshenko, the ex-prime minister; Oleh Lyashko, the Radical Party leader; and Anatoliy Grytsenko, the ex-defense minister.
And one possible wild-card entry, Okean Elzy frontman Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, a popular singer who campaigns against Ukraine’s entrenched corruption, was not even included in the poll. Vakarchuk is believed to be weighing a presidential bid in 2019.
Poroshenko’s support has precipitously declined, according to the recent poll released by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on March 19, especially compared to his landslide election on May 25, 2014, only three months after President Viktor Yanukovych abdicated power during the 100-day EuroMaidan Revolution.
In a survey taken in mid-February, only 9.8 percent of respondents say they would vote for Poroshenko, who doesn’t face re-election until March 2019. He held 18.3 percent support in September and 16.9 percent support as recently as December.
“All politicians in power are losing support, as the nation is clearly unsatisfied with their performance,” Vitaliy Bala, the political analyst with the Situation Modeling Agency think tank, told the Kyiv Post on March 20.
The news about Poroshenko’s $500,000 New Year’s vacation in the Maldives, Russia’s stalemated war against Ukraine, Poroshenko ally Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko’s attacks on the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine and many more factors could be making the president and his party more unpopular, Bala added.
The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll surveyed 2,043 respondents in 110 towns and villages of Ukraine between Feb. 5 and Feb. 21.
Only 40 percent of respondents had decided on a candidate or party.
Only two politicians, both populists, would have passed to the second round of presidential election: Batkivshchyna Party leader Tymoshenko (24.6 percent) and Lyashko (15.5 percent). Even Grytsenko, an independent politician, beat Poroshenko, with 12.5 percent of the vote.
The Bloc of Petro Poroshenko, the largest Rada faction with 135 seats in the Ukrainian parliament, saw even worse results. Only 6.6 percent of respondents would vote for Poroshenko’s party if the parliamentary election was in February. More than 22 percent said they would vote for Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna Party (20 seats), 13.5 percent the for Radical Party (21 seats) and 12.4 percent for the pro-Russian Opposition Bloc Party (43 seats).
“Opposition forces could make use of Ukrainians’ distrust in Poroshenko’s government during the election campaign,” Bala wrote on Facebook on March 19. “And Lyashko and pro-Russian politician Vadym Rabinovych (who has 9 percent support), will definitely use it.”
Poroshenko’s press service was unavailable for comment.
Bala said Ukrainians are looking for an alternative for Poroshenko’s leadership, and the growth in Tymoshenko’s rating shows that most voters see her as that alternative.
Everything can change
The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology said the study on voters’ preferences was ordered by a client they wouldn’t identify, but said its methodology was unbiased.
“We do such research every three months with our own money. But a client can include in our questionnaire a question he’s interested in, for money,” said Anton Hrushetskiy, the deputy director of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
The presidential elections will take place in March 2019, while parliamentary elections are slated for October 2019.
Most Ukrainians are undecided who they will vote for, Hrushetskiy said.
“The one thing I clearly can say is that the majority of Ukrainians are tired of Ukraine’s politicians and don’t know whom to vote for,” he said.
“Only 40 percent have already made up their mind. But during the last (elections in 2014), voter turnout was 50-60 percent. So basically we have still 15-20 percent of voters who could change the situation if they decided to vote.”
Bala was also cautious about predicting a winner.
“The numbers can change, but the poll shows the trend. The results will depend upon the mistakes made by the political rivals. The fewer the mistakes, the better the result.”
