The Belarus government has published draft proposals for major amendments to the country’s constitution which could have alarming consequences for the Belarusian opposition and even Ukraine.
Why is this happening now and why should Ukraine and its allies be wary? The answer is that the devil is in the details.
Let’s take a closer look.
The proposed amendments were published on Dec.27, apparently not long after calls between President Lukashenko of Belarus and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which at least ostensibly, were related to the upcoming CIS summit in Saint Petersburg on Dec 28.
The changes affect all chapters of the Constitution: the fundamentals, the individual and the society, the role of the President, various governmental organs and rules on elections and referenda.
A remarkable aspect is an almost copy-paste from Russia’s constitutional changes of 2020, which became dubbed the “Putin Constitution”.
There are rules in the preservation of “cultural heritage” sections that decree how marriage can only be between a man and woman and instruct all Belarusians to “show patriotism”, embrace “social responsibility” and preserve the memory of the “Great Patriotic War”.
10 more years in power for Lukashenko?
The changes would give Lukashenko immunity from prosecution and limit presidential terms to two terms of five years. But the restrictions would not apply retrospectively, meaning Lukashenko could continue in power until he is 81 years old.
The amendments follow a dramatic year for Belarus, with a torrent of domestic and international criticism heaped on the Belarusian president for the violent crackdown that he ordered in the wake of the disputed August 2020 presidential election, which he says was won fairly, but which the West and the Belarusian opposition say was heavily rigged.
Some of the other proposed changes seem aimed directly at his domestic opponents with new laws that would require presidential candidates to be at least 40 years old, have been a permanent resident of Belarus for at least 20 preceding years and that bar a candidate who previously held another foreign citizenship from running.
A new rubber-stamping regime for a Kremlin-approved power transition
Should the changes be approved, the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly will usurp parliament as the new rubber-stamping institution for Lukashenko.
The ABPA is a congress summoning the government, representatives of the economic sector (especially the inherently loyalist SOEs) and various top officials. According to the amendments, the ABPA will be given the decisive power to “impeach” the president and will be transferred several prerogatives so far reserved to a plurality of official organs and committees, now drained of authority (especially those in the economic and banking sector) including overseeing the Central Election Committee activities.
In this way, Lukashenko attributes all power-appealing competencies to a single corporatist organ composed of loyal members and ensures himself a quiet future, with no accountability for his latest repressions and stifling of his people, even if dismissed from its charge.
Moreover, this new “checks and balance” between Presidential and ABPA powers may be seen as evidence of Lukashenko’s attempt to negotiate a power transition that makes the Kremlin happy, with him leaving his post to someone who is Kremlin-approved, but constantly remains under the watchful eye of the ABPA, with its sweeping new powers, including the ability to impeach and fire a successor.
The key takeaways for Ukraine.
A “constitutional” alignment with Russia and the possibility of a smooth transition to a Kremlin-backed Belarusian President should concern Ukraine, which has had a decent relationship with its northern neighbour, primarily because of their economic ties, and the friendship between the Ukrainian and the Belarusian peoples.
The “anti-Russian” or ambivalent phases of Lukashenko are well over now, and the former common enemy may turn into the de facto ruler of neighbouring and interdependent Belarus, which may result in serious economic and military consequences for Ukraine.
