As the Ukrainian government gears up for a major international investment forum in the eastern port city of Mariupol next week, arbitrary delays of Ukraine-bound commercial vessels by Russian maritime forces have again risen, researchers report.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky chose to hold his first major investment conference, starting on Oct. 29, in the Azov Sea city of Mariupol, the city of nearly 500,000 people located 750 kilometers southeast of Kyiv and only 25 kilometers from the Russian border.
The “Re: Think Invest in Ukraine” conference will bring much of the Ukrainian government to Mariupol and boast a large number of high-profile investors and international partners in attendance.
But it threatens to be overshadowed by Russia’s ongoing aggression and interference in the Black and Azov seas, which multiple experts and lawmakers said have amounted to a “slow strangulation” and “creeping annexation” of Ukraine’s coastal and maritime regions in the Azov.
Russian navy and coast guard have especially tightened their grip on the Kerch Strait, undermining freedom of navigation between the Azov Sea and the Black Sea, researchers from the Institute of Black Sea Studies have recently said.
The waiting time for vessels headed to Mariupol and Berdyansk on the Azov Sea saw an increase of 240 percent through September and October, according to a new research study.
Waiting times for such vessels to leave the Azov Sea by crossing Kerch increased by 320 percent throughout the same period, researchers noted.
Experts also report that Russia may now be emboldened by what it regards as a greatly reduced threat of sanctions. Artificial delays in the Kerch Strait for vessels headed from the Black Sea to Mariupol and Berdyansk have returned to how they looked a year ago, in 2018, before there was a threat of sanctions on Russia.
According to a new study, jointly prepared by the Maidan of Foreign Affairs Monitoring Group, the Institute of Black Sea Studies and the BlackSeaNews website, the situation has worsened.
Previously, there was a temporary decrease in delay times at the Strait, allegedly due to Kremlin concerns over a so-called “Azov sanctions” package against Russia that did not materialize. Russia was threatened with further sanctions by the U.S. and EU after its forces attacked and seized Ukrainian navy vessels in the Black Sea in November 2018, while simultaneously beginning a de-facto blockade of the Kerch Strait.
Experts studying the situation alleged that Russia stops interfering with freedom of navigation in the Azov Sea and through the Kerch Strait only during periods of increased international attention.
At other times, Russian coast guard vessels and its navy continue to delay commercial ships for unacceptable amounts of time, costing companies millions of dollars in delays and forcing many vessels to abandon Ukraine’s Azov ports as an import or export destination.
The question of sanctions on Russia in relation to this interference should be revisited, the latest research paper concludes.
According to the latest report from the Institute of Black Sea Studies, vessels with cargo from Mariupol and Berdyansk face long and expensive delays, as do vessels without cargo sailing to or from Azov ports. In one month, the average delay time for Mariupol and Berdyansk vessels to enter the Azov Sea has risen from 19.8 to 39.1 hours, the latest study shows.
In September 2019, the situation deteriorated so badly that the delay time to enter the Azov Sea increased to 48.5 hours.
And unlike Russian-flagged or other vessels, ships headed to Mariupol and Berdyansk were forced by Russian coast guard to pass the Kerch Strait not in the usual fashion, but in separate “caravans” that are formed only once every few days, the researchers said.
Additionally, the research shows that Russia has used bad weather to justify increased waiting times for Mariupol and Berdyansk bound vessels. But research shows that bad weather conditions in September 2018 should have increased acceptable delay times by an average of only about 10-12 percent.
As investors and officials begin to arrive in Mariupol, the economic ramifications of Russia’s de-facto blockade have become clear. Shipping companies and metal exporters complain of millions in losses, while the cities of Mariupol and Berdyansk continue to suffer from what multiple lawmakers have called “economic warfare”.
“The domination of the Azov-Black Sea basin has allowed the Russian Federation to effectively block the operation of Ukrainian Azov ports, corresponding to a decrease in Ukrainian trade,” said Andrii Mashchenko, a maritime lawyer with the MBLS Law Firm in Kyiv.
More broadly, there are concerns that Russia’s overall objective is to turn the Azov Sea into a Russian lake, while it also consolidates its dominion over the Black Sea, from where it can project force into the Mediteranean.
Russia has created substantial obstacles to navigation in the Kerch Strait, but not only artificial delays for ships. The Kerch Strait Bridge, built by Moscow after the Crimean annexation in 2014, limits the size of ships able to pass through. The Ukrainian navy expects Russia to continue consolidating its capabilities to strike Ukrainian shores.
Under threat are Ukraine’s main export routes, which largely run through the Black Sea, between the ports of Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kherson, to the Bosphorus strait. These routes pass by the Odesa Field offshore gas platform, which has been seized by Russia.
In the future, experts predict that Russian forces may decide to detain Ukrainian vessels to “protect” the platforms that their country seized: “If Russians turn [the Black Sea] into a Russian sea, it’ll be very bad for our external trade,” said Sergii Korsunsky, a former Ukrainian ambassador to Turkey.
Kyiv Post staff writer Igor Kossov contributed to this report.
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