Infuriated by the Ukrainian military’s plan to carry out a major combat missile test near the coast of the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula, a senior Russian government official has warned Kyiv that Moscow would launch a retaliatory strike if the test went ahead as scheduled on Dec. 1-2.
Speaking at the International Conference of Scientific Research, Konstantin Kosachev — the Foreign Policy Committee chair of the Federation Council, the Russian parliament’s upper house – said Ukraine risks sparking a major international crisis if it follows through with the test in what he called “Russian airspace.”
“We will have to respond militarily. Of course, this would be the least desirable scenario. All of us must work to prevent it…but eight years ago the leader of another country that was in conflict with Russia – I’m referring to Georgia – decided to test our military. And we all know how that ended. I hope Ukrainian officials remember the lesson from that experience,” said Kosachev.
The missile test is planned to take place just off the west coast of the strategically located Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow seized from Ukraine in early 2014 in the wake of the Euromaidan Revolution that ousted the country’s pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovych.
Only seven other countries and three Moscow-backed breakaway regions recognize the Kremlin’s illegal takeover of Crimea.
Russia’s Defense Ministry already summoned the military attaché to the Ukrainian Embassy in Moscow on Nov. 26 and delivered a diplomatic note that reportedly threatened to neutralize both the missiles and the ground-based launchers that fired them.
The Kremlin has grown increasingly concerned by Kyiv’s improved military capabilities and emboldened strategic posture after nearly two and half years of war and reforms that continue to transform the once-beleaguered Ukrainian military into what the central command hopes in a NATO standard fighting force. The upcoming missile tests are serving as a reminder to Moscow that the Ukrainian military’s combat readiness is one that it must contend with in a way that was unthinkable to the Kremlin just three years ago.
For its part, Ukraine is not showing any sign of backing down to the Russia’s demands, saying they will continue with the tests, as planned.
“The exercises will go ahead on Dec. 1-2. They will involve tests of medium-range anti-aircraft missiles and include combat, transport and unmanned aircraft, as well as a division of anti-aircraft missile, radar and communications troops,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry announced late in the afternoon on Nov. 30.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry spokesperson Andriy Lysenko scoffed at Moscow’s demands, saying, “Ukraine is a sovereign state. All military exercises and tests are held according to a strict schedule and under international law…as for any threats (from Russia), no one can interfere with the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ operational plans.”
Speaking on the eve of the missile drill, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksander Turchynov showed no signs that the Defense Ministry had any intention to heed Russia’s call and order a cancellation.
Turchynov instead reiterated that the exercise would take place and that the Ukrainian armed forces would continue to strengthen country’s defensive capabilities “through further missile tests and training.”
Kyiv’s exact motives for the exercise have remained unclear ever since Ukraine’s defense ministry announced on Nov. 24 that a missile test would take place in the country’s southern Kherson region, just opposite the Crimean coast
The tests come immediately after another round of Normandy format talks between Ukraine, Germany, France and Russia failed to produce an agreement on the war-torn Donbas region.
The decision to carry out a test of offensive weapons so close to Russian-occupied Crimea is being seen as a direct message to Moscow only three months after Russia’s armed forces carried out large-scale war games in the region.
The September drills involved 12,000 service personnel and took place across the entire sector of its Southern Military District, including Crimea.
“There is no doubt that this is a type of gunboat diplomacy by Kyiv…meant as a gesture to Moscow,” Mark Galeotti, a senior research fellow at the Institute of International Relations Prague and author of “In Moscow’s Shadows” told the Kyiv Post.
Calling the test a “unilateral provocation”, the Kremlin has demanded that Ukraine’s Western allies put pressure on the government in Kyiv and force into a last minute change of heart.
Moscow’s dire warnings of a major escalation come after Russian officials very publicly accused Kyiv of recklessly attempting to worsen the two neighboring countries’ already poisonous relations.
But Galeotti believes the Kremlin’s two most likely options involve a more limited response than what Ukrainian officials might be expecting.
“Russia could decide that it is obligated to have some sort of limited (military) response to what is obviously a very provocative gesture by Kyiv…one that would go beyond deploying a few S-300 (surface-to-air missile systems) to the region. But they could decide that a bit of saber rattling and public denouncements are enough and choose to be, as they see it, the grown-up in the situation and let it pass without a major incident,” said Galeotti.
“Ukraine, however, is hoping that Moscow decides to react in such a way that it would allow them to go back to the Europeans, who are suffering from a degree of Kyiv fatigue, and make their case for continued support against what they will say is continued Russian aggression,” he added.
Last minute reassurances from Turchynov that the test would follow the internationally accepted protocol for military exercises has done little to calm the situation from Moscow’s perspective.
Video captured by pro-Ukrainian activists in Crimea shows that Russia has deployed several S-300VM anti-aircraft missile batteries to the area around Kerch, on the extreme eastern coast of the peninsula.
Ukraine and Russia have both deployed additional troops to the border regions near Crimea, with each side having placed their armed forces on high alert.
