BRUSSELS — The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, known as the INF, is the key United States-Russia agreement banning land-based missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers.
It is now only five weeks away from oblivion after both parties pulled out in early February following years of mutual accusations of non-compliance. This leaves NATO prepare to keep defending itself as Russia continues violating the treaty and boosting its intermediate missile stockpile.
Nonetheless, the 29-nation security bloc refrains from deploying new nuclear weapons in Europe as counterbalance to the Kremlin’s buildup. Instead of that, as Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on June 25, NATO will be enhancing its defenses in Eastern Europe, as well as boosting its investments in advanced military hardware and infrastructure, next-generation communications, and even space warfare capabilities — for the first time in the alliance’s 70-year history.
The official’s assertions came in the eve of the grand meeting of the North Atlantic Council due to be held in NATO headquarters in Brussels on June 26-27, during which NATO defense ministers are particularly expected to discuss defending the bloc’s security in the post-INF world.
During the June 25 briefing, Stoltenberg pointed to Moscow refusing to comply with the treaty, particularly by continuing to produce and deploy the ill-fated 9M729 missile (NATO code SSC-8) mounted on Iskander-M systems, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and believed to be greatly surpassing the 500-kilometer limit.
If Russia still wants to reanimate the key arms reduction treaty, a milestone achievement of Cold War detente of the 1980s, all SSC-8 missiles must be destroyed by Aug. 2, according to Stoltenberg.
“We call on Russia to take the responsible path,” he said. “But, unfortunately, we have seen no indication that Russia intends to do so. In fact, it continues to develop and field new missiles. And there are just five weeks left for Russia to save the treaty.”
In case of the treaty’s ultimate failure, NATO’s reaction will be “defensive, measured, and coordinated,” as the official noted.
“We will not mirror what Russia does,” he said.
“We do not intend to deploy new land-based nuclear missiles in Europe. We do not want a new arms race, but as Russia is deploying new missiles, we must ensure that our deterrence and defense remain credible and effective. This is NATO’s job.”
In fact, the alliance, which is gradually enhancing its defenses in its eastern realm since the outbreak of Russia’s expansion against Ukraine in 2014, is already active about deterring Moscow’s missile buildup, Stoltenberg asserted.
“Part of that is our readiness, increased presence of our armed forces in the eastern part of the alliance, and increased defense spending,” he said.
“We are increasing defense spending, we will increase defense spending, and this will enable us to invest in new capabilities to strengthen our deterrence and defense — also in response to continuing Russian violation of the INF treaty.”
Increased expenses
NATO on June 25 issued fresh statistics into its nations’ defense spending between 2012 and present, showing the continuing trend on increasing military expenses in Europe in the wake of Russia’s expansion. The European allies and Canada alone will show an increase of 3.9 percent in defense spending in 2019, compared with a 4 percent increase in 2018 and 5.8 percent increase in 2017.
“So we now have five consecutive years of growth in defense spending,” Stoltenberg commented on the data.
“By the end of next year, European allies and Canada will have added a cumulative total of well over $1 billion since 2016.”
The spending increases follow years of sharp criticism from U.S. President Donald J. Trump, who has repeatedly accused European NATO member states of shrinking from funding their own defenses while relying on the United States, which has the world’s largest defense budget of nearly $700 billion in 2019.
As Stoltenberg said, more European allies were getting closer to reaching the guideline of spending at least 2 percent of annual gross domestic product (GDP) on defense, as recommended by NATO requirements.
“This year we expect eight allies to spend at least 2 percent of GDP on defense, up just three allies in 2014,” he said. “This is a good trend, and we expect this to continue. The majority of allies have plans to reach 2 percent by 2024.”
As of now, the figures show, the NATO member states meeting the requirement in 2019 are the United States (estimated 3.4 percent of GDP on defense), Greece (2.2 percent), Estonia (2.1 percent), the United Kingdom (2.1 percent), Romania (2 percent), Poland (2 percent), and Latvia (2 percent).
Lithuania, with its estimated 1.98 percent on defense, is expected to hit the 2 percent guideline in 2019. The principle is enshrined in its national legislation.
Advanced warfare
In the same manner, the alliance keeps investing in new defense capabilities: This year, at least 16 allies are expected to meet the benchmark of at least 20 percent of defense spending devoted to major equipment, according to Stoltenberg.
Almost all the rest have plans to do so by 2024.
More money is to be allocated to set smart and advanced forces against Russia’s crude power.
As Stoltenberg said, NATO defense ministers on June 27 will discuss plans for joint research into artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and new military hardware, such as advanced surveillance drones and planes.
Moreover, the confrontation is already expanding into space — and for the first time ever, NATO during the upcoming North Atlantic Council meeting will be discussing its space warfare policy — “creating a framework of how NATO should deal with opportunities and challenges in space,” as Stoltenberg said.
“Space is part of our daily lives,” the official said.
“And while it can be used for peaceful purposes, it can also be used for aggression. Satellites can be jammed, hacked, and weaponized. And satellite weapons could cripple communications. So it is important that we are vigilant and resilient also in space.”
