The Ukrainian government says it remains confident the country’s Association Agreement with the European Union will come fully into force in spite of the Netherlands’ refusal to ratify the deal.
“The agreement is going to work anyways,” Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, told the Kyiv Post. “If the Netherlands won’t choose the ratification path, they will practically be cut from additional trade benefits.”
The association agreement has already been approved by the other 27 nations of the EU.
Dutch lawmakers have also twice voted in favor of ratification. But after a referendum last April in which 61 percent of voters rejected the deal, the Netherlands has been gridlocked over the issue.
The treaty has still been provisionally applied, meaning a free trade zone between Ukraine and the EU has been established, but other parts of the agreement relating to individual member states remain unenforced.
The failure of former President Viktor Yanukovych to sign the deal in 2013 led to public protests which grew into the Euromaidan Revolution and sparked the ongoing Kremlin-backed war in the country’s eastern Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.
Now, Klympush-Tsintsadze is urging the Dutch government to “mobilize internally” and make clear its position. She believes a heavy price will be paid both at home and abroad if the Netherlands excludes itself from the pact. “The 20 percent of the Dutch population that voted against the ratification is going to entrap in their Euroscepticism their own country`s economic interests, as well as those of Ukraine,” she said.
Since the Dutch ‘no’ vote, months of behind-the-scenes diplomacy between The Hague, Brussels and Kyiv has failed to lead to a compromise. But efforts are ongoing, with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko holding a telephone conversation on Oct. 11 in which they “coordinated” their positions on ratification of the Association Agreement, according to Ukraine’s presidential press service. The two men are expected to meet for talks later this month in Brussels.
In public, however, Rutte has of late been unambiguous. He told lawmakers last month the Netherlands is unlikely to put pen to paper. “I think, ultimately, we will not ratify [the agreement],” he said during a Sept. 22 parliamentary session.
Those words come in spite of the Dutch premier’s earlier statements in which he gave full support to closer ties between Ukraine and the EU.
After casting his ballot in the referendum on ratification, he sought to dispel myths the Association Agreement is tantamount to Ukrainian membership in the 28-nation bloc.
“I believe it is important that we have more stability on the borders of the European Union,” Rutte told journalists, “this is about helping with the development of the rule of law, democracy, fighting corruption, also developing the economy and stronger trade relations, it is not about accession to the European Union, as some of the ‘against’ voters are saying.”
Since then, however, the political landscape has changed. With the Netherlands set to hold a general election next March, the Dutch prime minister is under pressure to show he is alive to voter demands.
Marcel Michelson, a Paris-based political analyst and expert in Dutch politics, said in e-mailed comments that Ukraine’s European ambitions had been derailed by domestic political concerns, including the surge in anti-EU sentiment seen not only in the Netherlands, but across Europe.
“The Dutch referendum on Ukraine was not about Ukraine at all.The referendum on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement was the first such vote and many Dutch were set on casting a protest vote against the government. Others are depressed by the ravages of globalization on their own work and financial prospects and they blame the EU for that, instead of the WTO [World Trade Organisation],” he said.
Experts agree the onus for action is now on the Dutch government, which is under pressure from Brussels and Kyiv to a find a solution which will accommodate the interests of all parties.
“The referendum in the Netherlands was about the Netherlands itself, not about EU-Ukraine relations. It is up to the Netherlands to find their ‘relationship’ with the Association Agreement,” says Kateryna Zarembo, deputy director of the Institute for World Policy, a Kyiv-based nongovernmental organization.
The Dutch government, meanwhile, is giving little indication of its intentions. In response to recent questioning regarding the possibility of future ratification, the Kyiv Post was referred to a statement released on June 8, which reads: “A step by step approach is now required, of which consulting with our European partners, and with Ukraine is a crucial part. At present all options are still on the table. We have not excluded anything, nor voiced a preference for a certain solution.”
It is widely believed that if a resolution is to be found, it will come in the form of a compromise which will be carefully formulated by the Netherlands and the EU. “There will be informal contacts between Brussels and The Hague and the EU will push for the solution that complicates minimally the entry into force of the agreement,” says Guillaume Van der Loo, a researcher at the Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies. “However, at the same time the EU will try to avoid the perception that it is imposing the agreement on the Dutch citizens, against the outcome of the referendum.”
For now, the Association Agreement is provisionally in force.
This includes a free trade zone between Ukraine and the EU which was established on Jan. 1.
The provisional status of the deal can be maintained indefinitely. But without full ratification, work between individual EU member states and Ukraine in areas such as defense and judicial cooperation, taxation and migration will be on hold. That, in turn, is likely to act as a brake on any ambitions the Ukrainian government may harbor for eventual membership in the 28-nation bloc.
Still, Ukrainian member of parliament Nataliya Katser-Buchkovska remains upbeat, although admits the Netherlands’ referendum result came as a blow.
“The Ukrainian leadership felt some disappointment, but at the same time, Ukrainians have demonstrated an understanding of the sovereign, democratic choice made by the Dutch,” she told the Kyiv Post. “Certainly, this situation created additional difficulties in the way the deal comes into force.”
Katser-Buchkovska stresses the Netherlands is still among Ukraine’s top trading partners and suggests her country’s focus should be not on the ratification of the Association Agreement but rather on finding ways to “accelerate reforms, stabilize the economy and make the investment climate conducive to our European partners.”
