Three years after the EuroMaidan Revolution, Ukraine is not as close to Europe as most of its citizens would like to be. A free trade deal with the European Union is provisionally operating, while an association agreement is not fully ratified. Moreover, the E.U. still has not granted visa-free travel for Ukrainians.
Added to that, political developments in the United States and the E.U. could see a weakening of Western support for Ukraine, worsening the country’s position in its ongoing war with Russia.
Free trade, open skies
The latest joint report by the European External Action Service and the European Commission, which was released in December, praised the progress that Ukraine has made over the last two years under very difficult circumstances. In particular, the commission lauded the reforms Ukraine carried out to tackle corruption, clean up its banking sector, secure energy independence and strengthen democracy and the rule of law.
As an acknowledgement of the success Ukraine’s efforts, the E.U. pledged to continue to invest in its ongoing transition.
“We are hopeful that the next 600-million-euro tranche of macro financial assistance will be unlocked in early 2017 after Ukraine agrees to meet the remaining reform criteria,” wrote Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, in an article for the Baltic Rim Economies journal, which was published on Dec. 19.
Juncker also assured that he had been working with European Council President Donald Tusk to conclude the E.U.-Ukraine Association Agreement, which was rejected at a referendum in the Netherlands last April, putting it on hold indefinitely.
At the end of 2016, E.U. leaders in Brussels reached consensus on how to save the Association Agreement with a bill that Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will be able to submit to the Dutch parliament, in return for the ratification of the agreement with Ukraine. The Netherlands wants to make it legally binding that the deal with Ukraine wouldn’t oblige them to provide financial or military support, or guarantee its future membership in the E.U.
Taras Kachka, deputy executive director at Kyiv-based International Renaissance Foundation and former member of the Ukrainian negotiations group to the E.U., is optimistic that the deal will be ratified by the Dutch parliament this year. He believes a decision will be made before the general elections to the House of Representatives of the Netherlands in March, and then move to the Dutch Senate.
“The Netherlands took the responsibility of finalizing the ratification of the association agreement, and so far it can be safely said that it will be done,” Kachka told the Kyiv Post. “From our side, we have to continue with the reforms stipulated in the agreement as well as approving the technical regulations and standardizations necessary for the integration of Ukrainian products and services in the European market.”
Another accord that Ukraine has been waiting to be signed by the E.U. is the Common Aviation Agreement. The process has been delayed by a political dispute between the United Kingdom and Spain over Gibraltar’s remaining in the E.U. after Brexit, the referendum that will lead to the U.K’s withdrawal from the E.U.
Visa liberalization
Although 2016 ended with a big step forward in the announcement of agreement on a visa-free deal, it appears that Ukraine will have to wait another six months before it is finalized.
The Dec. 15 vote in the European Parliament approved a mechanism for the suspension of visa-free regimes with Ukraine and Georgia – a necessary condition for the regime to come into effect. However, a date for final approval hasn’t been set yet. Latest reports indicate it might not happen before summer.
Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty Brussels reporter Rikard Jozwiak wrote on Jan. 11 that Brussels expected Georgia to be granted visa-free travel by April-May, and Ukraine by May-June.
This information corresponded with the words of Olena “Lana” Zerkal, Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister for European Integration, who said a final decision on visa-free travel would be made before the presidential elections in France (first round set for April 23, with a run-off vote on May 7), and would come into effect after them.
“For us it’s a matter of honor. Our ability to fulfill our obligations in the future depends on this decision,” Zerkal said in an interview to European Truth website published on Jan. 10.
Political shifts in EU
Over the past two months, Ukraine, like pretty much the most of the world, has had to come to terms with the reality of Donald Trump, who has expressed admiration for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, taking over the White House.
France, in particular, could weaken its support for Ukraine. One of the front-runners in the presidential race is far-right leader Marine Le Pen, whom Ukraine last week warned may be barred from entering the country for her comments about the legitimacy of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Le Pen has repeatedly endorsed Putin’s views. Moreover, she sees no future for France in the E.U., despite the country being one of its founding members. She has called for a return to a national currency for France and holding a referendum on leaving the union.
Marine Le Pen, leader of the French far-right Front National (FN) party, delivers her New Year’s wishes to the press in Paris on Jan. 4, 2017. (AFP / ALAIN JOCARD)
Another French presidential candidate, Francois Fillon, has been a longstanding supporter of Putin and favors lifting the E.U. economic sanctions imposed against Russia after the Kremlin’s land grab in Crimea and war against the Donbas. The sanctions will stay in place at least until July 31, 2017.
Andreas Umland, senior research fellow of the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation in Kyiv, thinks a Fillon presidency is more likely than a Le Pen one.
“The crucial question will be whether Fillon will succumb to the E.U.’s position on sanctions against Russia or try to change that position, and be ready to get into a confrontation over this issue with countries like Germany, Poland and Sweden,” Umland told the Kyiv Post.
“In the worst case, France could lead a group of countries like Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Slovakia, and Austria that will argue for a softening of the sanctions. A lot will depend on the position of the Trump administration on this issue.”
