President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People party took the lion’s share of the vote in July 21 parliamentary elections, securing 254 of 450 (59.9 percent) seats in parliament.
But voters were significantly less enthusiastic in the country’s foreign electoral districts, where Ukrainian citizens residing abroad cast their ballots.
The results from 102 polling stations around the world heralded former President Petro Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party the winner, albeit by only 1.5 percentage points.
European Solidarity claimed 29.6 percent of the vote abroad, closely followed by Servant of the People with 28.1 percent. But in Ukraine, it took slightly above 8 percent.
Rock star Svyatoslav Vakarchuk’s party Voice came in third place abroad with 19.7 percent. In Ukraine, less than 6 percent supported it.
The pro-Russian Opposition Platform – For Life party came in sixth place with only 3.6 percent of the vote. In Ukraine proper, it took second place in the election.
Alexander Clarkson, a lecturer in European studies at King’s College London, attributes the difference in voting patterns between residents of Ukraine and the Ukrainian diaspora — and the potential reasons behind their support for European Solidarity — to several factors.
“There is a tendency in diaspora communities to conflate whoever is leading the country at any one time with the country itself,” he told the Kyiv Post.
“If a politician uses the kind of rhetoric that reflects a diaspora’s vision of the culture and politics of their country of origin… there is very quickly a tendency in the diaspora to equate the interests of the president with the interests of the county of origin.”
“There’s this very idealized sense of what Ukraine is in the West, and the fear of Russia is much stronger,” Jeff Sahadeo, director of the Institute of European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies at Carleton University in Ottawa, told the Kyiv Post.
“Some of the things that Zelensky was campaigning on – more of a pragmatic relationship with Russia and working through economic issues – have less resonance in the diaspora… they’re more concerned about things like territorial integrity, a Ukraine that is adamantly Western-looking. I don’t think that Zelensky’s middle ground appealed to them in that sense.”
Sahadeo also mentioned that Poroshenko had done some ground work abroad, too, so as to foster expat support.
According to Clarkson, the Ukrainian diaspora community is not one in which people watch significant amounts of satellite television. The people in diaspora have likely been less exposed to the last few years of Ukrainian politics and the country’s recent social media environment — a platform Zelensky used to his advantage in the presidential election.
They are much more “attuned to the political messaging around army, faith, the slogans of Poroshenko…” Clarkson said.
“A lot of the Ukrainian diaspora, especially in North America, formed a very anti-communist identity and, for them, communist means anything really to do with Russia,” says Sahadeo.
“Even just the name European Solidarity, if you look at it on the ballot, is going to be more attractive.”
European Solidarity received overwhelming support from Ukrainians residing in countries such as Saudi Arabia (53.8 percent), the Netherlands (43.4 percent), and Australia (42.1 percent). Countries of historic Ukrainian immigration were also pro-European Solidarity: Canada (36.4 percent), the United States (38.3 percent), and the United Kingdom (34.7 percent).
Servant of the People’s biggest Ukrainian fans abroad resided primarily in Eastern European and post-Soviet countries – Armenia (47.8 percent), Kyrgyzstan (46.3 percent) Azerbaijan (42.4), Poland (35.2 percent).
For the most part, these diaspora communities’ political affinities remained unchanged from during the presidential election earlier this year.
Clarkson attributes the populations’ tendency to vote for one party or another to a range of factors, including the diaspora’s age demographic, regional and social backgrounds, how long ago the diaspora community was established, and the country’s distance from Ukraine.
For example, countries where Ukrainians voted for Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party — such as Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom — may be less in touch with Ukraine. They tend to have more established and structured diaspora organizations and a “community life that defines the Ukrainian experience,” Clarkson said.
The countries that voted for Zelensky’s Servant of the People party may be geographically closer, or have a higher influx of recent, younger migrants from Ukraine, who are more attuned to the media culture and politics of the country.
“They’re a lot more aware of what’s going on day-to-day in Ukraine, and the same issues that propelled Zelensky to power in Ukraine are motivating these voters,” Sahadeo said of the Ukrainian diaspora in countries such as Poland and Germany.
Their countries may also have a complicated relationship with Russia and, while there is anti-Russian frustration, there may also be the realization that you can’t just “cut Russia out of the picture.” Their perspectives might have resonated more with Zelensky’s message.
“It’s also about differences of patterns of migrations – it’s very much a relationship of distance,” said Clarkson. “There isn’t regular movement (in North America)… They have very little day-to-day contact with Ukraine.”
“If you’re a Ukrainian person that moves to Germany, or Italy, or Romania… it’s an entirely different relationship with Ukraine which is based on circulation – people move back and forth.”
