Unprecedented protests have erupted in recent weeks in both Belarus, Russia’s close ally and westernmost neighbor, and one of Russia’s easternmost regions – Khabarovsk Krai.
Both protest movements appear to be currently reaching a climax as more and more people are joining them.
They come amid mounting unrest triggered by economic difficulties and the COVID-19 lockdown as the popularity of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko are falling.
Belarusian election
The Belarusian protests were triggered by Lukashenko’s heavy-handed behavior in the run-up to the Aug. 9 presidential election.
The popularity of Lukashenko, who has run the country since 1994, appears to be sinking due to the economic crisis, his clumsy handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and systematic violations of civil liberties.
Independent opinion polls are banned in Belarus but indirect evidence shows that Lukashenko’s competitors could easily beat him in a fair election – an unprecedented situation for Belarus, where he had stayed relatively popular before.
According to the average percentage based on five non-representative Internet polls taken by five media outlets in May, Viktor Babariko, ex-CEO of Belgazprombank, would get 49 percent, popular blogger Sergei Tikhanovsky’s wife Svetlana Tikhanovskaya would receive 22.3 percent, 11.3 percent would vote for Valery Tsepkalo, ex-head of the Belarusian IT Park, and only 3.4 percent would back Lukashenko.
On July 14, Belarus’ central election commission made it easier for Lukashenko by refusing to register his three strongest opponents in the election – Tikhanovsky, Babariko and Tsepkalo.
Tikhanovsky could not register as a candidate himself because he was under arrest, and his representatives were not allowed to register him on his behalf.
The election commission also claimed that Babariko had errors in his asset and income declaration and that foreign donors were financing his campaign.
The commission refused to recognize most of Tsepkalo’s 212,000 signatures collected for registration. Moreover, it refused to consider complaints by those whose signatures were rejected.
About 10,000 supporters attend a rally to back presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya in Minsk on July 19.
Criminal cases
Criminal cases against the strongest opposition candidates also helped to neutralize them, and two of them are in jail.
On May 29, Tikhanovsky was arrested and charged with alleged violence against police officers at a rally in his support in Grodno. Video footage from the rally shows an apparent agent provocateur complaining to the police that Tikhanovsky did not answer her question and the police arresting Tikhanovsky. Then some of Tikhanovsky’s supporters pushed the police officers away from him. No footage has been published of Tikhanovsky using violence against the police.
The KGB also arrested Babariko on June 18 in a tax evasion and money laundering case.
In June the Interior Ministry also said it was checking Tsepkalo in a potential criminal case without explaining what the accusation was. Tsepkalo said on July 24 he had left Belarus because he had been tipped off about his future arrest.
As a result, Tikhanovsky’s wife Svetlana decided to run on behalf of her husband and the election commission registered her, apparently deeming her to be a much lesser threat to Lukashenko.
Eventually the Tikhanovskys, Babariko and Tsepkalo united their efforts behind Svetlana Tikhanovskaya’s candidacy. The combined campaigns are symbolically represented by three women – Tikhanovskaya, Tsepkalo’s wife Veronika and Babariko’s campaign chief Maria Kolesnikova.
Tikhnanovskaya is promising to hold an early fair election with all alternative candidates if she wins.
Tikhanovskaya and Veronika Tsepkalo also said they had to get their children out of Belarus for security reasons.
Presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya attends a campaign rally in the city of Bobruisk in Mogilyov Oblast on July 25.
Belarusian protests
The campaign has also seen unprecedented protest activity for pre-election seasons.
Thousands of supporters stood in multi-kilometer lines to sign up for the opposition candidates. Babariko, Tsepkalo and Tikhanovskaya collected 435,119, 212,000 and 146,000 signatures, respectively.
Babariko’s arrest and the authorities’ refusal to register the three strongest opposition candidates prompted thousands to protest all over Belarus on June 18 and July 14. During the second protest wave, protesters clashed with the police in Minsk when the police tried to detain and beat them up. According to Belarusian observers, this is the first time since the 1990s when demonstrators were prepared to defend themselves from the police.
About 10,000 people attended Tikhanovskaya’s campaign meeting in Minsk on July 19, and between 5,000 and 10,000 supporters attended her meeting in Vitebsk on July 24. Hundreds and thousands have also attended her campaign events in Mogilyov, as well as in smaller cities in Minsk and Vitebsk oblasts over the past week.
Observers generally agree that all elections in Belarus have been heavily rigged since the 1990s. Lukashenko admitted it himself in a 2014 interview but said that he had to rig the presidential election results to decrease his own percentage to appease the West.
The united opposition expects Lukashenko to rig the election but aims to offset this by mobilizing election observers. A major protest rally is also expected for election day.
People hold banners and signs during a rally in support of Sergei Furgal, the governor of Khabarovsk Krai who was arrested, in the Russian far eastern city of Khabarovsk on July 25, 2020. (AFP)
Khabarovsk unrest
The Khabarovsk protests were triggered by the July 9 arrest of Sergei Furgal, the popular governor of Khabarovsk Krai. He was charged by the Federal Service of Russia, the KGB’s successor, with murdering three businessmen in 2004 to 2005 and was brought to Moscow.
Furgal became governor in 2018, one of the few opposition candidates who won in Russia. Although Furgal represents LDPR – a party that claims to be in opposition to the Kremlin but generally toes Putin’s line – he has managed to curry favor with the local population and to become more popular than Putin in the region.
In 2019 Furgal caused the Kremlin’s irritation when his LDPR got 28 out of 36 seats in Khabarovsk Krai’s legislature, while Putin’s United Russia received just two seats.
On July 1, 2020, Khabarovsk Krai also saw one of the lowest turnouts and support figures for a vote that allowed Putin to run for president until 2036, effectively making him dictator-for-life.
On July 20, Putin fired Furgal and appointed Mikhail Degtyarev, a member of Russia’s parliament from the LDPR party, as acting governor of Khabarovsk Krai. Degtyaryov refused to speak to the protesters and antagonized them.
Protesters shout “Putin, resign!” and “Putin is a thief” at a rally in Khabarovsk on July 11.
Furgal’s supporters believe the charges to be fabricated and political. They demand a fair and open jury trial for Furgal in Khabarovsk. The demonstrations against Furgal’s arrest became the biggest protests in Khabarovsk’s history and possibly the most massive regional protests in the recent history of Russia.
As a result of Furgal’s arrest, tens of thousands have attended major rallies for three weekends in a row. Local observers said every time the number increased.
According to Russian independent media and protest participants themselves, the turnout at the July 25 rally amounted to between 50,000 and 100,000. The pro-Kremlin city government, which tends to underestimate the number of protesters, said 6,500 people attended the rally.’
Moreover, hundreds and thousands have demonstrated continuously every day – an unprecedented event for Russian protests.
Similarly to Belarus, the protests come amid Putin’s decreasing popularity. His approval rating hit an all-time low of 25 percent in May, according to the Levada polling agency.
Protesters demonstrate against ex-Khabarovsk Krai Governor Sergei Furgal’s arrest in Khabarovsk on July 25.
