LONDON – Dozens of people gathered at the Ukrainian Institute in London on May 13 to hear prominent Ukrainian journalist, writer, and commentator Vitaly Portnikov’s reflection on Ukraine’s politics, shaken by the election of Volodymyr Zelenskiy as president.
Tickets to the event were sold out in advance, with the venue hall overcrowded. Portnikov, an anchor and editor of the TV program “The Roads To Freedom,” produced by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, drew applause as he appeared in the entrance.
‘Ukrainian politics is Agatha Christie’s Orient Express with no driver’
The outcome of the presidential election reminds him of “Murder on the Orient Express,” the detective novel by British writer Agatha Christie.
Zelenskiy, a comedian and an actor who played Ukraine’s president in the TV series “Servant of the People,” defeated President Petro Poroshenko, capturing 73 percent of the vote on April 21 to the defeated incumbent’s 24 percent. Poroshenko came to power in a special election in 2014 after the EuroMaidan Revolution ousted his Kremlin-backed predecessor, Viktor Yanukovych. Zelenskiy will be inaugurated by the end of May.
Zelenskiy, a familiar face to Ukrainian TV viewers despite his lack of political experience, elicits both hope and fear. Portnikov regards him as a mystery.
“The Orient Express is rushing but suddenly everyone realizes that the driver is missing. He is just gone. A eeird and quite an unusual situation,” he told the London audience. “Everyone is trying to understand whether there is anybody at all in the driver’s cabin. If so, what are these people going to do? Do they actually know how to drive a train? Does anybody have a driving license? Someone shouts that the train goes to Moscow. Others say the next stop is in Washington. Where does this train go? We do not know.”
Portnikov said nobody really knows Zelenskiy’s political views or who influences his decisions.
But he is convinced that Ukraine’s sixth president will become an even bigger threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin than the EuroMaidan Revolution.
He said Putin knows that Russians are not going to organize a Ukraine-style revolution, with sustained mass street protests. “Russians do not organize revolutions. They can go on the streets for a peaceful march against something, but that is it. All the resistance is instantly quashed by the police and society itself tolerates it, unlike in Ukraine where EuroMaidan became such a thing because people raged against the police crackdown on demonstrators,” he said.
However, Portnikov said, Russians are capable of electing a person from outside the current political system. That’s what Putin fears most, he said.
“Russian people hate their political elite. Despite government-controlled television, only Putin has credit in their eyes. That means that if he is gone, the vacant place can be filled with (Russian comedian Semyon) Slepakov, (Russian comedian Garik) Martirosyan, or (Russian satirist Mikhail) Zhvanetsky,” Portnikov said.
When Putin feels threatened, he takes action, Portnikov said. “All the efforts will be put on proving that Ukraine is a failed state, that the state that elects a non-systemic candidate should definitely self-destruct.”
This mindset makes it unlikely that Putin will negotiate an end to the Kremlin’s five-year war in the Donbas with Zelenskiy.
The new president will also start out with Ukraine in disfavor with U.S. President Donald J. Trump, whose lawyer, Rudolph Giuliani, blames Ukrainian political leaders with siding with Trump’s defeated Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
“America will set conditions to Zelenskiy and his team as, for example, about whom to appoint in the office, so there are no people there which the U.S. views as suspicious. They will demand an investigation of the help that Ukraine provided to the Democrats in 2016. Plus the story with Biden’s son,” Portnikov said, referring to Hunter Biden’s position as a high-paid member of the board of directors of Burisma energy company, owned by Yanukovych’s former Ecology Minister Mykola Zlochevsky.
Zlochevsky has long been suspected of corruption in the issuance of energy exploration licenses from his time as minister, accusations he and Burisma have denied. Giuliani, the former prosecutor and mayor of New York City, has said Hunter Biden’s father, ex-U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, should be investigated over whether he abused his powers as vice president to protect his son’s business interests in Ukraine.
If Zelenskiy does not help Trump, Portnikov said, Trump will start negotiating with Putin. The possible outcome would be a further loss of Ukrainian territory. That may be a real result of Zelenskiy’s presidency. If America closes its eyes while Russia goes somewhere and attacks Ukraine, that is what we will get,” warned the journalist.
‘People in occupied Donbas have little say’
Portnikov criticized a video that Zelenskiy published on Facebook on May 13. In this video, Ukrainian religious leaders appealed to people who live in the Russian-occupied territories of Donbas and Crimea to make peace.
“I am wondering, when priests appeal to people who are actually hostages and live on occupied-by-Russia territory, what do they expect to hear from these people? It is the same as during the time of World War II, when some priest would appeal to the people living in the part of Great Britain occupied by the Nazis who would have said ‘Let us live in peace.’ The people would have probably replied: ‘Yes, we are ready, we also define ourselves as a part of Britain but there are German troops here. You should first expel them and then appeal to us.'”
According to Portnikov, such appeals make the conflict look like a civil one, rather than the result of Russian aggression. “We should keep in mind that the majority of people living under occupation in Donbas, whatever their political beliefs are, whether they are pro-Ukrainian or anti-Ukrainian, cannot do anything. People who live threatened by foreign gun machines they cannot do anything either.”
Ukrainians have to realize why they need their country
According to Portnikov, both the 2014 Orange Revolution, which brought Viktor Yushchenko to power after protests against a fraudulent presidential election, and the EuroMaidan Revolution, which removed Yanukovych from power, had one thing in common: Yanukovych unexpectedly united Ukrainians in their desire to resist his politics.
“Both revolutions happened due to one simple reason – it was a riot for independence when people felt that the state is at risk, the existence of it is at risk. Both revolutions were related to the infamous name of Viktor Yanukovich, who always symbolized this obvious desire to push Ukraine closer to Moscow.”
A state may exist only with the unity of people who share common values, said Portnikov. Russia’s war has helped unify Ukrainians in this sense, he said.
“Historically in Crimea and Donbas, which Russia seized in 2014, the Russian education outweighs the Ukrainian one. This includes Russian television, Russian propaganda, the Russian world” as well as Russian misinterpretations of Ukrainian history, said Portnikov. “The concept of the state having several opposite historical memories, contradicts the possibility of the existence of such a state.”
“If one part of the country has Ukrainian historical memory, Ukrainian language, church, and the other part has all these but only Russian, including Russian views on the world, the question arises: Why do these people all live in the same country if Russia is nearby and is seen as more comfortable for some?”
Uniting values is Ukraine’s task for the future, Portnikov suggested.
“That may sound weird, but thanks to the Russian annexation of Crimea, Ukraine won political support as a nation in the Ukrainian east. The vast majority of people living there did not understand the difference between them and Russians and discovered this difference only after Crimea was annexed. They had contempt for Russians because they had stolen the territory they saw as a summer cottage,” the journalist said.
When Russia launched the war in eastern Donbas, the same realization came to southern Ukrainians. The goal for Ukrainians, he said, is now to decide what is the purpose of their state to exist. This is primarily a question of values, he said.
Oligarchs have to be converted into businesspeople
Until Ukrainians decide what kind of nation they want to build, the oligarchs will keep ruling in Ukraine. “Oligarchs should be converted into businessmen. Why are they oligarchs? Because the success of their business depends on their relationships with the authorities.”
Portnikov suggested that Ukrainians have to take responsibility and start getting involved in politics. Oligarchs who put money into political parties are not interested in society’s interests, but rather in protecting their business interests.
For more about Portnikov and the Ukrainian Institute in London visit the institute’s website.
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