LVIV, Ukraine — To survive its long-running conflict with Russia, Ukraine must continue to demonstrate its political and cultural affiliation with the West, as well as strengthen its own identity, leading security experts said at the Lviv Security Forum on Nov. 30.
And continued support from the West should not be taken for granted, one expert warned.
“The challenge for Ukraine today is not simply to defend itself, not simply to prevail in war and current conflict,” said James Sherr, an associate fellow at Chatham House, a British-based think tank.
“(Ukraine has) to demonstrate, both to the West and in the end to Russia, that (it) is not a part of Russia’s cultural and historical bloodline, but that Ukraine is Ukraine. And that the war that Russia started in eastern Ukraine has made it more Ukrainian that it was before.”
The Lviv Security Forum, which opened on Nov. 30 at the Ukrainian Catholic University, is this year focusing on the world’s new security order. The forum’s panels featured intellectuals and experts in defense, geopolitics, and security from Ukraine, Canada, the United States, Germany, Estonia and Moldova.
The discussions opened with a panel entitled “Was the war in modern Europe inevitable?” moderated by Myroslava Gongadze, the chief editor of the Ukrainian service of Voice of America, who traveled to the conference from Washington D.C.
Asked by Gongadze if Europe still understands the threat Russia poses, Stefan Bierling, a professor from the University of Regensburg in Germany, said Western support for Kyiv could not be guaranteed to last forever, as Europe, and particularly Germany, remains to some degree split on the Russian question.
“We in Germany still have two camps regarding Russia, and implicitly by this regarding Ukraine,” the professor said. “One camp, embodied by Chancellor (Angela) Merkel at the moment is based in a realistic worldview, on German interests and values, and it is willing to cooperate with Russia as long as it doesn’t have to compromise its own values, security system, NATO and so on.”
”This group is at the moment of course in control of Germany’s Russian policy, and it’s of course in control of the relationship in Ukraine. But there has been always the second group after the 1990s that was friendlier to Russia. We even coined a phrase for them…the ‘Russland Versteher.’ (Those who understand Russia) These are people who want to understand Russia at any price, it is almost an apologetic view of Russia.”
Russia sympathizers in German society are today largely to be found in the “Alternative for Germany” far-right populist party, which opposes Merkel’s policies in many ways, though primarily her welcoming approach to refugees from the Middle East, Bierling said.
Russia sympathizers in Germany see Russian President Vladimir Putin as a strong leader and have somewhat nostalgic sentiments for the Cold War. Besides, many Germans still bear a feeling of guilt for the events of World War II, and gratefulness for the Kremlin’s role in the unification of Germany in 1990, and – not least of all – for economic reasons, Bierling said.
Also, in many ways Russian artistic, literary, and musical achievements are seen by many Germans as an alternative to U.S. values, that they deem consumer-oriented and pragmatic, according to Bierling.
“What does this mean for Ukraine?” said Bierling.” First of all, I would say: don’t take Germany’s strong support for Ukraine in the fight against Russia for granted. Because there is a wide debate in Germany on this subject, and there are different camps. At the moment, Merkel controls the (pro-Ukrainian camp) and it has the marvelous job of keeping Europe and the West united on the policy of imposing sanctions on Russia.”
