The West’s weak response to war crimes in Syria encouraged the Kremlin to launch military interventions beyond Russia’s borders, first in Ukraine, and then in Syria to save the regime of its president, Bashar al-Assad.
And the perception that Russia has succeeded in its military adventures will tempt other actors to launch their own interventions, warned panelists at the Kyiv Post’s Bringing Peace to Ukraine & Syria conference, held in Kyiv on June 18.
A crucial turning point came in August 2013, when the administration of former U.S. President Barack Obama failed to take firm action after Assad’s forces used chemical weapons against civilians. The use of such weapons was supposed to have been a “red line,” which, if crossed, would lead to direct U.S.-led military intervention in Syria.
But when the line was crossed, Obama failed to act, and this brought far-reaching dire consequences, conference speakers agreed.
“There was no appetite for intervention in Syria (within the U.S. administration), that was pretty clear,” Anna Borshchevskaya, a Middle East studies fellow at the Washington Institute, said during the “Russian Intervention” panel discussion, the first of three held during the one-day conference.
“Frankly, Obama… knew he would not get the authorization to use force (against the Syrian regime). And it is highly unfortunate, because (Russian President Vladimir Putin) perceived weakness, he read all these moves as weakness, and it was easy for him to step in and take advantage.”
Moreover, this impunity for committing war crimes and waging undeclared wars also prompted other actors, such as Iran and the numerous Shia militias it backs to expand their activities, thus breeding more violence and destruction in global hotspots, primarily Syria.
“All (of these actors) look at the example of Russia in Ukraine and Syria, and say – if Russia can do that, why can’t we?” said Kristina Dobrovolska, a representative of a open-source investigating community Inform Napalm.
Meanwhile, according to the United Nations, the ongoing multi-sided war in Syria has claimed at least 500,000 lives and uprooted over 11 million people. Russia, which intervened the conflict in late September 2015 to back the Assad regime, still continues delivering destructive air strikes on the last remaining Syrian resistance forces, as well as on civilian targets.
Due to the Kremlin’s military and financial support for the Damascus regime, the devastating war in Syria continues, with few hopes that it might end in the near future.
Tobias Schneider, a research fellow at the Global Public Policy Institute, a think tank, said he was pessimistic that a peace settlement would be found soon to the Syrian war. The best thing the global community can do try to save as many lives of Syrian civilians as possible, he said.
“(Russian intervention) has transformed the nature of the conflict in Syria,” he said.
With the West unable to bring about an end to the war, it should concentrate on making the lives of those worst affected by the fighting more bearable, Schneider said.
“Peace in Syria might not come in our generation, but the lives of refugees can be made better. Bringing peace to Syria is unrealistic — both in terms of political will and actual capacity.”
