Russian President Vladimir Putin has been in power for almost two decades and will stay for at least six years more.
His leadership, however, has been so damaging for his nation and the world that many wonder: When will Putin’s era end and what is the future of Russia after Putin?
Three experts knowledgeable with how Putin’s regime works discussed what may happen after his term is over at a panel at the annual Yalta European Strategy conference in Kyiv on Sept. 15.
By law, Putin’s third term is supposed to end in 2024. However, this doesn’t guarantee he will step down when the time comes, said Andrey Illarionov, a former senior economic adviser to Putin, who turned into his critic.
“The dates are irrelevant,” he said. “What matters in Russian political world is a will. Personal safety doesn’t exist outside of political power which means that Putin can’t leave his post. He will continue for as long as he is physically capable.”
The U.S. ambassador to Russia from the Obama administration (2011-2014) Michael McFaul opined that if Putin extends his powers after 2024, it would be under pressure from his close circle whose wealth and prosperity are guaranteed by his power.
Another U.S. diplomat who led the Moscow embassy in 2014-2017 and a former ambassador to Ukraine, John Tefft, suggested that Putin could follow the example of Boris Yeltsin: Pick a young successor and try to set up a system for him.
But what if an unexpected occurrence removes Putin from the president’s seat? All three panelists agreed it was hard to predict who could step up.
Illarionov described Russia as a tough authoritarian regime with low ranks on democracy, human rights, and rule of law. Today’s Kremlin state propaganda is more efficient than in Communist times, and the main instrument of control is a selective terror.
In his opinion, to retain control, ex-KGB agent Putin relies on state security and intelligence agencies and organized crime groups. He also has liberal politicians on his team who are in charge of economic policies and whose expertise secure the stability of his regime, such as the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina and head of the Audit Chamber Alexey Kudrin, Illarionov said.
McFaul added that Putin’s legacy might outlive his presidency.
“My hope is that Putin and the Russian people are different. My fear is that there’s more support for Putinism than we suggest,” he said.
“But we are not passive in influencing the future of Russia. First, we have to contain Putin’s Russia, it is the only way to deter what he is doing around the world. And secondly, what Putin fears the most is democratic Ukraine,” said McFaul.
Tefft was more positive and pointed that anti-Putin sentiment, especially among young people, is growing in Russia. There is, of course, an opposition leader Alexey Navalny who exposed corruption in the Kremlin circles and organized nationwide protests that gathered thousands of people.
“I remember an interview of a 20-year-old woman who attended Navalny’s rally on June 12, 2017,” Tefft recalled. “She was asked why she was there, and she replied, ‘I’m tired of seeing same guys in power.’ I feel that there are many young people across Russia who think like this.”
