POPULATION forecasting is not simple. Demographers use mortality data – information about when people die and why – to estimate the likely life expectancy of people still alive. The UN, the World Health Organisation (WHO) and others produce periodic forecasts that are fairly similar. Wealthy countries such as Japan, Switzerland and Australia have the highest life expectancies, though the estimates vary slightly depending on the methodology used. But a new study of 35 rich countries by researchers at Imperial College London and the WHO, and published in the Lancet, a medical journal, uses a combination of 21 statistical models, instead of just one. The results, say the authors, are more reliable. They are also surprising.
The Economist: Longevity in rich countries
An elderly woman walks past a poster at a health centre in Gunwi, some 200 kilometres south of Seoul. on May 27, 2016. According to a study published on Feb. 22, life expectancy is set to continue to rise, with projection showing it passing 90 years of age for women in countries such as South Korea, France and Japan.
