BRUSSELS – The European Union has had a rough year, buffeted by terrorism, “Brexit,” far-right populism and lethargic growth, and leaders of its member states will tiptoe through a geopolitical minefield on Dec. 15 as they gather in Brussels for their end-of-year summit meeting. The migration crisis has abated, but only slightly, and collective decision-making is harder than ever. Referendums, like Britain’s June 23 vote to leave the European Union and Italy’s Dec. 4 decision to reject constitutional changes, have made life harder for democratically elected leaders. The war in Syria, aggression and meddling by Russia, and the election of Donald J. Trump as the United States president have added to the complexity.
Here is a guide to some of the thorniest questions leaders face:
Will sanctions against Russia be maintained?
For now, yes. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President François Hollande of France are expected to recommend the renewal of penalties against Russia — stemming largely from its 2014 intervention in Ukraine and annexation of Crimea — for six months. The thornier issue is whether the European Union can preserve a united front if the Trump administration eases American sanctions as part of reconciliation with Moscow. Italy has already warned that the policy damages its exporters, and that view could gain ground, particularly if Mr. Trump cozies up to Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin.
