Ukraine won’t face another refugee wave unless the frontline or economy significantly worsens, Volodymyr Vakhitov, director of the Behavioral Science Institute and associate professor at American University Kyiv told Kyiv Post.
He said that Ukraine has reached “a certain equilibrium in displacement” of Ukrainians abroad after three years of Russia’s full-scale invasion – people who wanted to leave the country left and people inside the country chose to stay.
“Some people will still leave, but Ukraine will not likely see any huge waves [of refugees] unless the situation on the frontline or in the economy becomes sharply and significantly worse,” the professor said.
The Institute for Behavioral Studies at American University Kyiv published a report stating that almost 80% of Ukrainian women stayed in Ukraine despite Russia’s full-scale invasion.
In total, 79% of Ukrainian women consider it important to them to stay in Ukraine, and 72% believe it important to stay in their local area. The most common reasons for staying are being close to their families, feeling a sense of belonging, and having proper housing.
The willingness to stay is linked to financial status: the higher a woman earns, the more likely she is to stay in the country. However, single or divorced women aged 18–29 are more prone to leave.
According to the research, women with children have the same willingness to stay in Ukraine as those without – and this is a contrast compared to the portrait of Ukrainian refugees three years ago, Vakhitov told Kyiv Post.
Ukrainian women currently staying inside the country reportedly made a conscious decision to stay, despite the war. That said, some are still prone to leave due to security or poverty. This gives Ukraine hope that women feel connected to their homeland – but the government will need to create a policy for those who still want to relocate.
Ukrainian refugees in 2022 and potential new refugees in 2025 are “different”
Ukrainians leaving the country at the beginning of Russia’s invasion relocated because of the need to feel safe, and they could afford to do so.
“In the first weeks after the full-scale invasion, the portrait of those who chose to leave Ukraine was quite different: these were mostly families with underage children, car owners, and, in general, wealthier households,” Vakhitov told Kyiv Post on the sidelines of the presentation of AUK’s report “What motivates women to stay in Ukraine?”.
By the middle of summer in 2022, about a third of the Ukrainian population had relocated within or outside of Ukraine, and about half of those had already returned home, he explained.
As Russia’s invasion dragged into the third year, a portion of refugees returned to Ukraine, and thousands of women inside the country decided to stay at home.
Will they want to leave again? They may, according to the associate professor, but Ukrainians who are still willing to leave in 2025 may be driven by a set of reasons different than in 2022.
“Our latest study indicates that the portrait of potential leavers has changed,” Vakhitov told Kyiv Post.
Children were an important factor behind leaving for Ukrainian refugees at the beginning of invasion, but it’s no longer the case after three years of war. “Kids are no longer a factor – which suggests that the majority of those who were afraid for their children have left,” he said.
Wealthy Ukrainians left in the early weeks of the invasion. In 2025, the trend did a U-turn – Ukrainians may leave the country because of poverty. “The wealth factor has reversed, suggesting that the largest cohort of the wealthiest have already left, too”, the researcher said.
Vakhitov is not alone in reaching these conclusions.
His arguments are “partially supported” by the findings from his colleagues in the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), who issued another report saying 53% of 5.2 million Ukrainian refugees abroad expressed reluctance to return to their home country.
Out of all refugees, a quarter of them are a group named as “Quasi-Labor Migrants,” who left primarily for economic rather than security reasons. They seem to have integrated into their new societies the most and have the lowest return intentions.
They also show less desire to return “with every new wave of the survey,” because they have settled into a better lifestyle than in Ukraine and are unwilling to leave it.
Vakhitov explained to Kyiv Post that, in 2025, security and poverty are major factors that will drive the decision to leave Ukraine.
“[Two] major factors are apparent: security and poverty, which suggests that most females who consider leaving Ukraine do so due to extreme necessity, rather than making a conscious choice,” he said.
While working on the research, Vakhitov, alongside researcher Natalka Zaika and researcher at Southern Denmark University and Kyiv School of Economics Hanna Vakhitova, asked women inside the country what drives them to leave and what barriers affect this decision
“We have found that 20% of females consider the possibility of leaving, but only 3% to 4% have enough capacity (financial, social, or other) to leave,” Vakhitov explained.
These results suggest that Ukraine won’t see an exodus on the same scale if the war situation remains the same as it is now. Those people who wanted to leave, left. Ukrainian women who stayed in the country did so willingly.
“That is why we believe that we have reached a certain equilibrium in displacement,” he said.
“Some people will still leave, but [Ukraine] will not likely see any huge waves unless the situation on the frontline or in the economy becomes sharply and significantly worse,” he added.