Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, are increasingly concerned about the threat of social upheaval that could be triggered by the mass return of soldiers from the war in Ukraine, according to Reuters.
Three sources with ties to the Kremlin told Reuters that Putin views the large-scale reintegration of Russia’s military personnel into civilian society as a risk to the social order and political system that he has built.
One of the sources said that Moscow is particularly focused on avoiding a repeat of the post-Afghanistan experience, when demobilized veterans played a significant role in the rise of organized crime during the turbulent 1990s.
The same source voiced concerns that many of those returning to civilian life will have to adjust to radically lower salaries than those they have received from Putin’s war chest, which could also foster discontent.
An army recruit from Moscow can make as much as 5.2 million rubles ($62,000) in their first year of service in Ukraine, while signing-up bonuses, which already approach the average annual salary in the capital, have been repeatedly increased to attract volunteers.
A second source close to the Kremlin told Reuters that the Russian government fears the impact that a mass veteran return might have on its tight grip over the political system, pointing to the chaos unleashed by Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s 2023 mutiny against the military top brass.
The third source said that the Kremlin has been working at Putin’s behest to manage the problems that may arise with a fresh toolkit of policies, programs and appointments including helping veterans to take part in regional elections last year and putting them forward for federal parliamentary elections next year.
Russia’s Central Election Commission (CEC) said on Aug. 31 that more than 1,600 Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine have been nominated as candidates in 2025 regional and local elections.
Putin previously launched the “Time of Heroes” training program to equip former soldiers with the skills for careers in government, calling them “the country’s new elite” and saying that they will “lead regions, enterprises and the largest public projects.”
Concerns have been precipitated in part by high-profile violent crime cases involving veterans of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
In October 2024, Azamat Iskaliyev, a 35-year-old convict who had been recruited to join the army while he was carrying out a nine-year murder sentence for stabbing his wife to death in the summer of 2021, returned from six months on the battlefield and promptly knifed an ex-girlfriend to death.
In the same month, Russian independent media outlet Verstka reported that almost 500 Russian civilians had been victims of serious violence by veterans of the war in Ukraine, including 242 people who had been murdered.
The outlet reported that women had been disproportionately affected and that ex-convicts were overrepresented among the military personnel committing violent crimes.
Earlier this year, Ukrainian intelligence claimed that Russia had recruited up to 180,000 convicts to fight in Ukraine in the period before November 2024.