NATO is reportedly considering an armed response to Moscow’s hybrid attacks following the latest airspace violations by Russian planes and drones.
The issue, initiated by eastern-flank nations, has grown into a wider debate within the bloc and will likely top NATO’s agenda at next week’s meeting.
The Financial Times (FT), citing NATO officials, reported that the alliance is exploring a standardized response to Russian aerial incursions to increase the costs of Moscow’s hybrid warfare.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank, asserts that Russia has entered “Phase 0” of preparations for a potential war with NATO, as hinted by Moscow’s unprecedented 19-drone incursion into Poland and unidentified drone sightings across Europe, including over civilian airports in Munich and military bases in Norway and Denmark.
Cyber experts also reported a “tsunami of disinformation” during the drone incursion into Poland, suggesting it was part of Moscow’s broader hybrid warfare campaign.
The armed response under consideration ranges from arming surveillance drones that collect intelligence along the Russian border to lowering the threshold for intercepting Russian threats, according to the FT.
Two NATO officials told the FT that a pressing issue is standardizing the rules for engaging perceived threats: Some countries require visual confirmation from fighter pilots, while others simply rely on radar data to make the decision.
War drills along the Russian border in less protected frontiers – a posturing move to demonstrate NATO’s readiness – is also considered as a potential response; the bloc is set to launch its annual nuclear drill next week, though NATO chief Mark Rutte said it is not linked to the latest escalations.
One NATO diplomat who talked to the FT said the discussions are in the early stages.
“There are active discussions on these issues, how to better and more efficiently respond to Russia,” the person said.
Another NATO official quoted suggested divisions within the alliance as to how far the response should go due to fears of escalation, since Russia is a nuclear-armed nation.
All four NATO officials told the FT that the final decisions might not be publicized.
“When it comes to the range of hybrid or gray-zone activities we’ve seen, including cyberattacks, drone incursions or attempts to sabotage critical infrastructure, NATO is working closely with allies to ensure we’re taking appropriate steps to ensure we can deter and defend,” one of them told the FT.
A Russian diplomat recently said that downing Russian planes is an act of war, whether they violated NATO airspace or not, though senior Russian officials, including Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, have proclaimed that Russia is already at war with NATO.