Russia Entered ‘Phase 0’ of Preparations for Potential NATO War, Analysts Say

Russia is intensifying its propaganda drive and psychological operations against Western states as it moves into “Phase 0” of preparations for a potential war with NATO, a top U.S. security think tank has claimed.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Moscow appears to be engaged in “concerted preparations” as part of a “condition-setting phase” designed to lay the ground for possible large-scale conflict in future.

Since its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been accused of waging a hybrid warfare campaign against NATO countries that has included sabotage, electronic warfare interference, GPS jamming and arson.

Recent weeks have seen a period of increased hybrid activity, the ISW said in its daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment report, with the most prominent example being the mass drone incursion into Polish airspace in September.

“This pattern of organized activity suggests that Russia has entered the first phase of preparations—‘Phase 0’—to move to a higher level of war than the one Russia is currently engaged in, such as a future NATO-Russia war,” ISW analysts said.

They cautioned, however, that they are unsure “whether the Kremlin has decided to engage in such a higher level of war or on what timeline the Kremlin may expect to do so,” but said Moscow has been making longer-term plans for some time.

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UK ‘false flag’ claim

The ISW says Moscow is using propaganda, as well as hybrid warfare, to prepare for possible future war. One example highlighted in Monday’s report is a claim made by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) that the UK plans to use Russian soldiers fighting for Ukraine to perform acts of sabotage.

The institute said the alleged plot was to “conduct an attack on a Ukrainian Navy ship or a foreign civilian vessel in a European port,” as a ‘false flag’ operation. The SVR reportedly said the UK would arm the stooges with Chinese-made underwater equipment and then accuse China of supporting Russian operatives in the attack.

“The SVR’s October 6 claim follows similar SVR false flag claims targeting European states, such as Poland, Moldova, and Serbia, and the SVR has been issuing such statements more frequently in recent weeks that constitute a new concerted pattern of activity,” the ISW wrote.

Divide and rule

The analysts said Russia’s aim through its disinformation campaigns is to sow fear and division in Western societies and to weaken NATO’s resolve.

“Russia is trying to push Europeans to decrease their support of Ukraine out of fear that continued support will increase Russia’s overt or covert attacks,” the ISW wrote, adding that a key strategic aim is to force Western countries into making policy decisions that actually benefit Russia.

The campaign also serves a domestic purpose by “framing Western actors—not Russia—as responsible for attacks or threat of attacks,” thereby “setting conditions to justify and rally public support for any possible future Russian aggression against NATO.”

Since the September 10 mass drone incursion in Poland, several EU and NATO countries have reported suspicious drone activity, including Denmark, the Netherlands, the Baltic states and Romania.

Moscow has repeatedly denied any responsibility for the incidents, and the deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, former president Dmitry Medvedev, used his English-language Telegram channel on Monday to “deflect blame away from Russia for recent drone incursions in European airspace, including by claiming that the drones could have been a Ukrainian provocation,” according to the ISW.