Russia’s seaborne crude shipments have tumbled sharply in their largest decline since January 2024, as the impact of sweeping US sanctions led major buyers to shy away from Moscow’s oil supplies, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 4.
Analysis of vessel-tracking data compiled by the outlet shows that four-week average volumes from Russia’s ports were 3.58 million barrels a day to Nov. 2, down by about 190,000 from the revised figure for the period up to Oct. 26.
Cargo discharges have been affected worse than loadings, with oil on the water surging.
The drop in flows has substantially reduced Moscow’s oil earnings, which are now at their weakest since August. The downturn follows a US prohibition on dealings with the country’s two biggest oil majors, Rosneft and Lukoil, announced on Oct. 23.
It follows reports that refiners are scaling back purchases and looking at shifting to alternative suppliers for the time being.
Buyers in India, China and Turkey account for more than 95% of Russia’s seaborne crude exports, so any significant or long-term pull-back in their purchases would cripple the industry used to fund Moscow’s war machine.
Refiners are still accepting some unsanctioned oil, but hesitancy to unload shipments has caused Russian barrels to remain at sea far longer than usual.
The amount of Russian crude idling offshore has soared to more than 380 million barrels, rising by 27 million barrels, or 8% since the start of September, according to Bloomberg citing tanker-tracking data, which underscores the growing log jam.
Several Indian refiners, which are normally responsible for close to one million barrels a day of Russian crude imports, have paused purchases while they consider potential workarounds.
Chinese state-owned processors Sinopec and PetroChina Co. have canceled Russian cargoes, with buyers’ caution likely to disrupt as much as 45% of China’s total seaborne crude imports from Moscow, according to Bloomberg.
Turkey, the third-largest purchaser of Russian crude, has also started trimming intake and turning to short-haul suppliers such as Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan to fill the gap.
Some analysts have warned that the stranded crude will eventually find its way to the market, as it has in the past, but the near-term outlook for Russia\s oil trade remains volatile amid a tightening web of restrictions.
On Oct. 24, it was reported that oil prices had jumped by five percent after US President Donald Trump announced the sanctions in a bid to force Russia to negotiate to end the war in Ukraine.
A report by Bloomberg last week showed that Russian exports of refined fuels had dropped to levels unseen since the war began.