Following Friday’s visit to Belarus by US special envoy John Cole, 123 political prisoners were released on Saturday. In exchange for their pardon and release, Alexander Lukashenko’s regime is expected to receive a rollback of US sanctions on potash fertilizers – one of the cornerstones of the Belarusian economy.
Among those freed are Viktar Babaryka, a former Belarusian presidential candidate; Maria Kalesnikava, one of the leaders of the opposition; Maxim Znak, a lawyer closely associated with the opposition (whose sister was interviewed by Kyiv Post); and Ales Bialiatski, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and founder of the Viasna human rights organization.
The group of released prisoners also includes citizens of Australia, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the UK and the US – more than 100 people in total.
Typically, political prisoners released by the Lukashenko regime cross into Lithuania. This time, however, 114 individuals entered Ukraine, where they were received, among others, by Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency. The move has raised questions, particularly given Belarus’s role as a co-aggressor in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
According to regime press services, the transfer may be part of a broader prisoner exchange. As Kyiv Post has learned, several hundred Belarusians are currently fighting on Russia’s side, largely motivated by financial incentives. Future exchanges could also include Russian prisoners of war.
“Lukashenko is trying to draw Ukraine into a negotiation process and obtain consent for further talks in a Minsk-3 format,” Pavel Latushka, one of the leaders of the Belarusian opposition, told Kyiv Post. The asylum law dimension is also significant.
“Under the Dublin Convention, an asylum application should be filed in the first safe country. Ukraine does not qualify as such due to the war. In practice, this means that those former prisoners who wanted to reach Poland rather than Lithuania will be able to apply for asylum in Poland,” explained Anton Zhukau, media manager at the BYSOL Foundation. “It remains unclear why they did not cross the Belarusian-Polish border directly. The fact that Kyrylo Budanov himself greeted them may point to other – possibly intelligence-related – aspects of this operation,” Zhukau adds.
A Polish journalist and Belarusian citizen, Andrzej Poczobut, remains imprisoned in Belarus. According to Viasna, he was not released because he refused to submit a formal request for a pardon to Lukashenko. Poczobut’s case remains a key element of Poland’s diplomatic efforts, so far without success.
Lukashenko: A dealer in human lives?
Despite ongoing migration pressure on the Polish border and repeated provocations against Lithuania – including the use of smuggling balloons that have led to temporary closures of Vilnius airport – Lukashenko may now feel like a short-term winner.
More than 1,000 political prisoners remain in Belarusian prisons, according to Viasna. The real number is likely significantly higher, as some detainees avoid being formally classified as political prisoners out of fear of further repression against themselves or their families.
The US is expected to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers. This would mark the second recent step in easing restrictions. In November, sanctions on Belavia, Belarus’s national airline, were lifted. European sanctions, however, remain in place, meaning Belarus still lacks a clear path to exporting fertilizers or restoring air connections.
The lifting of sanctions on Belavia may indirectly benefit Russia. The potash issue is different, as it concerns one of the regime’s most important export commodities.
“Potash was primarily exported via the Lithuanian port of Klaipėda. Belarus, without its own seaports, has its hands tied,” Zhukau noted.
This raises the question of whether Western countries – Lithuania in particular – may soon face pressure to reopen transit routes for Belarusian goods. The answer remains unclear. The Belarusian outlet Nasza Niva also reports that the US expects Minsk to release Lithuanian trucks currently detained in Belarus, which the regime has threatened to confiscate.
This is not the first time the Belarusian authorities have freed political prisoners following talks with Washington. The open question is what strategic objectives the US is pursuing – and to what extent they align with the interests of Ukraine and Belarus’s NATO neighbors, particularly Poland and Lithuania. Russia’s role in the process remains equally opaque.
One thing, however, is clear: Lukashenko has once again demonstrated that political prisoners serve as bargaining chips. Hostages to be traded for concessions from the West – allowing him to carve out a limited, if illusory, margin of autonomy from the Kremlin.
The BYSOL Foundation is running a fundraising campaign to support the released political prisoners. Donations can be made here.
The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.