Ukrainian monitoring channels reported activity at Russia’s Kapustin Yar test site on Thursday, raising concerns about the possible launch of an Oreshnik ballistic missile.
At 12:23 p.m., an air raid alert was declared in Kyiv. “Air alert in Kyiv due to the threat of ballistic weapons,” the Kyiv City Military Administration said.
Major monitoring channel Nikolaevsky Vanek – widely believed to be linked to a senior Ukrainian official – also confirmed a potential Oreshnik launch at 12:26 p.m. Because of the threat, Kyiv Post staff left the newsroom to seek shelter.
At 12:27 p.m., Ukraine’s Air Force warned of a possible intercontinental ballistic missile launch from the Kapustin Yar test site. Ukrainian Telegram channels reported that the missile could arrive within 10-15 minutes, with later posts claiming the launch had been confirmed.
“A medium-range ballistic missile launch has probably been carried out!” the Air Force wrote at 12:34 p.m. Notably, this type of missile is detectable only on approach to the target.
However, Telegram channels later reported that testing was apparently underway at the Kapustin Yar site and the end of alert was expected. No missiles entered Ukrainian territory, they added.
At 12:46 p.m., the Air Force announced: “The threat of intercontinental ballistic missiles from Russia’s Astrakhan region has been repelled.”
The air raid alert in Kyiv was subsequently lifted. Monitoring channels added that, according to preliminary information, there remains a risk of renewed Oreshnik-related alerts from Kapustin Yar through Feb. 19.
An Oreshnik missile was first used against Dnipro on Nov. 21, 2024, although its warheads carried no explosive charge. A second launch in January 2026 reportedly struck near Lviv, also without a payload.
The Oreshnik is a nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile, named after the Russian word for hazel tree, with an estimated range of 3,000-5,500 km (1,860-3,400 miles). Sergei Karakayev, head of Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces, has said it can strike targets “throughout Europe.”
Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko claimed in December 2025 that Oreshniks had been deployed in Belarus, after which Moscow announced the system had entered combat duty. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Oreshnik carries “dozens of homing warheads” and can hit deeply buried, heavily protected targets.
While Russia claims the missile travels at Mach 10 and is impossible to intercept, experts note that although its warheads reach hypersonic speeds, they do not maneuver like true hypersonic weapons – making them theoretically easier to track.
Polish analyst Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski said its warheads behave like those of traditional ballistic missiles during atmospheric reentry. The first known strike on Dnipro in 2024 caused limited damage, leading Ukrainian officials to suggest dummy warheads were used.
Putin has described the Oreshnik as a modern, state-of-the-art system, though the US Defense Department considers it an experimental missile based on the RS-26 Rubezh.
Karakayev previously said that development began following a Putin order issued in July 2023.