After three days of speeches, panels, and closed-door talks at the Munich Security Conference, a clearer picture emerged of where Europe stands – not because the war in Ukraine had ever been perceived as remote, but because years of hesitation, delayed decisions, and cautious support are increasingly seen as having weakened Kyiv’s position and Europe’s own credibility.
What remained after the annual gathering was not only another round of pledges of solidarity with Ukraine, but a growing recognition among European leaders that caution has come at a cost – and that the strategic environment has fundamentally changed.
Unity hardens as trust in Washington wavers
European heads of state and government once again emphasized their support for Ukraine, presenting a broadly unified front as the war approaches its fifth year. Yet beneath the statements of resolve ran a quieter, more sobering reassessment: the United States, long Europe’s most reliable security anchor, is increasingly viewed as an unpredictable partner.
The current US administration’s foreign policy has been described as “wrecking-ball politics” in the 2026 Munich Security Report and echoed repeatedly in speeches and panel discussions – shorthand for a transactional approach that departs from a rules-based international order. In its place, many speakers acknowledged, a multipolar world is taking shape, defined less by treaties and institutions than by power, leverage, and deals. That shift, European officials suggested, has forced Europe to rethink its own posture.
Pressure on Ukraine, urgency for Europe
Ukraine is enduring what many officials described as the hardest winter since the war began. Russian strikes have repeatedly targeted energy infrastructure, leaving large parts of the country without electricity and heat during prolonged cold spells, while military losses continue on the front lines. At the same time, pressure for a negotiated settlement is growing – particularly from Washington. President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged in Munich that Kyiv feels that pressure, including expectations of movement toward a peace framework by midyear.
Zelensky told the conference that Europe’s security is inseparable from Ukraine’s fate. He argued that the Ukrainian army has become the strongest in Europe and warned against leaving it outside NATO structures.
“Europe needs Ukraine,” he said, adding that it was “not smart” to keep such an army outside the alliance and urging Europeans to ensure that decisions about Ukraine’s future are made in Europe – not in Moscow.
Military reality counters narrative of Russian strength
Several leaders pushed back forcefully against claims that Russia is winning the war. Finnish President Alexander Stubb described the invasion as a strategic failure for Moscow. Russia, he said, had failed to conquer Ukraine, failed to prevent NATO enlargement, and failed to keep European defense spending low. Stubb pointed to casualty figures from December and January – a combined 65,000 Russian soldiers killed – and to Russia’s economic strain, citing depleted reserves, stagnant growth, double-digit inflation, and interest rates at 16%. He argued that Moscow was prolonging the war not because it was advancing, but because the political and social cost of ending it had become too high. To change that calculus, Stubb called for harsher sanctions and continued military support for Ukraine.
Calls to remove remaining red lines
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen criticized what she described as persistent restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to fight back.
“You cannot win a war with one hand tied behind your back,” Frederiksen said, arguing that Ukraine must be allowed to strike military targets inside Russia.
She stressed that air defense, long discussed but repeatedly delayed, remains essential and warned that Russia has shown no genuine interest in peace.
Germany signals endurance, not fatigue
Germany’s tone was notably firmer than in previous years. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Berlin’s support for Ukraine would not waver, stressing that Germany would continue applying political, economic and military pressure on Moscow. He emphasized that the Kremlin was dragging out negotiations and shifting the burden of war onto its own population, while Europe continued to apply political, economic, and military pressure. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz went further, casting doubt on whether diplomacy alone could end the conflict. He said Russia was not negotiating seriously and suggested the war might end only once Moscow is economically or militarily exhausted.
“We are approaching this time,” Merz said, “but we are not yet there.”
Fears of a bad peace
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas warned that the greatest danger now is not Russia’s military momentum, but the risk that it could secure more at the negotiating table than on the battlefield.
“The biggest threat Russia currently poses is that it may gain more at the negotiating table than it has achieved on the battlefield,” Kallas said.
She noted that Russia has barely advanced beyond the 2014 front line at enormous human cost and is nonetheless presenting maximalist demands in talks. She said compensation for Ukraine, the return of deported children, and accountability for war crimes are minimum conditions for any credible peace, adding that without clear signs of readiness from the Kremlin, Europe would continue rearming.
Has Europe finally heard the alarm?
Throughout the conference, one question hovered over discussions: Has Europe truly grasped the moment? Commitments to raise defense spending toward 5% of GDP, once championed mainly by Baltic, Nordic, and Eastern European states, are now gaining traction across the continent. NATO, far from being weakened by the war, has expanded with the accession of Finland and Sweden. Yet speakers acknowledged that unanimity within the EU remains difficult, particularly with governments in Hungary and Slovakia resisting a tougher line. Several officials argued that Europe must find ways to act without being paralyzed by the requirement for consensus.
The mood in Munich suggested a continent slowly leaving the sidelines – aware that delay has only strengthened Moscow’s hand, and that Ukraine’s survival is inseparable from Europe’s own credibility. The war, speakers stressed, will not end overnight. But the prevailing sentiment was that it can be won – provided Ukraine can rely on a united Europe willing to move from declarations to decisive action.