Ukraine has received $1.5 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the first tranche under its newly approved four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, the Finance Ministry announced on Tuesday, March 3.
The IMF Executive Board approved the new $8.1 billion arrangement on Feb. 26, replacing the 2023 EFF as the war stretches into its fifth year and economic uncertainty persists.
The funds have already been transferred to the state budget and will be used to finance priority expenditures and support macro-financial stability as Russia’s full-scale invasion continues, the Ministry of Finance press release says.
The first review of the program is scheduled for June, when the IMF will assess Kyiv’s progress in meeting reform benchmarks.
The new EFF covers the period from 2026 to 2029 and reflects updated macroeconomic projections and security risks.
“I am grateful to the International Monetary Fund for its trust and consistent support of Ukraine,” Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko said, according to the press release. “Since the beginning of the full-scale war, $14.9 billion in financial assistance from the Fund has been disbursed to the state budget. Following the approval of the new program, we continue to actively work on implementing jointly agreed reforms aimed at ensuring macroeconomic stability, strengthening public governance, supporting recovery efforts, and ultimately advancing Ukraine’s European integration. The first review of the program is expected to take place in June this year.”
Under the arrangement, Ukraine committed to maintaining prudent fiscal policy and strengthening revenue mobilization. This includes measures to ensure a level playing field for taxpayers and reduce opportunities for tax evasion.
Not only cash: why Ukraine needs the IMF program
According to joint government and IMF estimates, Ukraine’s external financing gap for 2026–2029 is projected at about $136.5 billion under the baseline scenario. The EFF is expected to serve as a catalyst for additional funding from international partners.
The IMF’s broader four-year support package forms part of a coordinated international effort to sustain Ukraine’s wartime economy and lay the groundwork for post-war reconstruction and European Union accession.
According to the IMF, “with Russia’s war on Ukraine still ongoing and insufficient time remaining under the 2023 EFF arrangement to restore external viability,” Ukrainian authorities sought a new framework to stabilize the economy and ensure debt sustainability.
“I pray that early in 2026 there will be peace, but – nonetheless – we have to have a program that is anchored in the realities of today,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva previously said in an interview with Kyiv Post in January, discussing the new IMF program.
IMF’s forecast for Ukraine’s key macroeconomic indicators
According to the forecast published in the IMF’s press release, the IMF estimated the indicators for 2025 and projected the developments for 2026:
- Ukraine’s growth in real GDP is expected to be at 1.8-2.2% in 2025, 1.8-2.5% in 2026
- Average consumer inflation in 2025 as 12.7%, year-end inflation at 8%, while 2026 average consumer prices for 2025 at 6% and year-end at 7.5%
- Unemployment rate is estimated at 11.6% for 2025 and forecast at 10.2% for 2026
- Nominal wage growth is estimated at 22.6% for 2025, 12% for 2026
- Public debt for the year-end is estimated as 108.7% of GDP for 2025, and 122.6% for 2026
- Current account balance is estimated at -15% to GDP for 2025, -19.4% to GDP for 2026
- Gross reserves for year-end are estimated at $57.3 billion by the end of 2025 (5.7 months of next year’s imports of goods and services), and $65.5 billion for 2026 (7 months of imports)
- Year-end hryvnia per $1 is estimated at Hr. 42 for 2025, Hr. 42.4 for 2026, average rate is estimated at Hr. 40.2 for 2025, Hr. 41.7 for 2026