The Kremlin is preparing plans to transfer Russians’ pension savings into a state-backed long-term investment program, potentially redirecting trillions of rubles toward infrastructure and government-linked projects, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
The move comes as Moscow faces growing financial pressure under sanctions and sustained wartime spending.
Trillions in pension funds at stake
According to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, the proposal could affect around 3 trillion rubles (about $37 billion) held in pension accounts of approximately 37 million Russians who have not selected a private fund to manage their savings.
Under the plan, the funds would be redirected to non-state pension funds for investment in infrastructure and state projects, providing the economy with so-called “long money.”
The intelligence service said the main beneficiary could be the pension fund “Blagosostoyanie,” whose shareholders include major state-linked entities such as Russian Railways, Gazprombank and Russia’s national economic development institution (VEB).
Echoes of past pension freezes
The proposal follows earlier measures taken by the Russian government to manage fiscal shortfalls.
In 2014, shortly after the annexation of Crimea and the introduction of Western sanctions, authorities froze the funded portion of pensions. At the time, 6% of pension contributions that were meant for individual savings accounts were redirected to cover current pension payments.
The measure was initially presented as temporary but has remained in place for more than a decade.
Voluntary program fails to attract funds
The long-term savings program, launched in 2024, was designed as a voluntary mechanism to channel household savings into the domestic financial system after foreign investors withdrew following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
However, participation has fallen short of expectations.
Over two years, the program attracted around 717 billion rubles ($8.8 billion) from 10 million participants, significantly below the levels needed to meet state financing goals.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has urged the government to “more actively encourage” participation, but voluntary enrollment has not produced the desired results.
Pressure grows under war and sanctions
Ukrainian intelligence said the potential forced transfer reflects a broader pattern of the state seeking additional financial resources under mounting economic pressure.
While the mechanism for reallocating the pension funds has not yet been finalized, the intelligence service said the rationale behind the move is clear.
Analysts warn that such measures could further undermine public trust in the pension system, as funds originally intended for future retirees are redirected toward state-controlled investments.
As Russia faces budget constraints driven by sanctions and the costs of the war against Ukraine, authorities are increasingly looking to domestic sources of funding.
Ukrainian intelligence recently reported that the Kremlin has stepped up pressure on businesses through tighter tax controls and regulatory measures.
These include advance VAT payments, stricter oversight of importers and increased monitoring of cash transactions and informal employment.
Putin has also held closed-door talks with Russian oligarchs, urging them to increase their financial contributions to the war effort.
The discussions signaled a shift toward more direct expectations from the country’s wealthiest business figures as the war continues.
At least some participants indicated readiness to provide additional funding following the meeting.