Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly ordered his intelligence services and military to work toward “destroying NATO and the EU from within” in 2026, with Moldova emerging as a key target in the Kremlin’s strategy, The New York Times reported.
Friday’s report, based on officials from two countries familiar with a secret December 2025 meeting, says Moscow is pursuing the strategy on at least two fronts: testing NATO’s willingness to defend its members and destabilizing Moldova.
US intelligence has assessed that Russia could seek to test NATO’s resolve as early as this fall through a limited attack on an alliance member.
Possible scenarios range from cyberattacks and sabotage to operations involving unidentified armed groups or a limited incursion into a NATO country on the alliance’s eastern flank.
But Moldova could offer Moscow a different route to destabilizing Europe.
Why Moldova matters
Western intelligence officials told the NYT that conquering Ukraine remains Putin’s top priority, while establishing control over Moldova is reportedly second.
Moscow’s strategic goal, according to the officials, goes beyond political influence in Chisinau. Putin is still believed to want to seize southern Ukraine and create a land corridor connecting Russia to Moldova.
That would put Moldova – a small country of about 2.4 million people wedged between Ukraine and NATO and EU territory – in an extremely vulnerable position.
Moldova also has the Russian-backed separatist region of Transnistria on its territory, where Russian troops have been stationed for decades. That gives Moscow an existing military foothold just across the border from Ukraine and within striking distance of Moldova’s capital, Chisinau.
Control over Moldova could therefore give Russia another platform for pressure on Ukraine while placing the EU and NATO’s eastern flank under additional strain.
Moscow already has pressure points
Russia does not need an open invasion to destabilize Moldova.
In March, a Russian strike on a Ukrainian hydroelectric plant triggered an oil spill that polluted the Dniester River and disrupted water supplies in Moldova, including the country’s third-largest city.
Russian drones later struck a high-voltage line in western Ukraine that supplies Moldova with a large share of its electricity, exposing how closely the country’s infrastructure is tied to the war next door.
The pressure is also political. Moldova has been moving decisively toward the EU, while Moscow has repeatedly sought to exploit political divisions, disinformation and economic vulnerabilities to weaken that shift.
“Hybrid attacks every day”
German Chief of Defense Gen. Carsten Breuer has warned that Russia is already conducting hybrid operations across NATO, particularly on the eastern flank.
Poland and the Baltic states are now increasing security around dams, power plants, gas facilities and other critical infrastructure amid fears Russia could stage a false-flag attack using Ukrainian-made drones.
A Baltic intelligence official told Reuters that such an operation could be designed less to cause physical damage than to create political chaos inside NATO – forcing Washington and European capitals to debate whether Russia was responsible and whether the alliance should respond.