On Sunday, May 18, Poland will hold the first round of presidential elections. The vote will mark the end of an election season that began in the fall of 2023 with parliamentary, local government, and European Parliament elections.
Thirteen candidates are running in the race for the presidency. There has been considerable controversy in Poland regarding the registration of these candidates – each must submit 100,000 signatures of support to the National Electoral Commission in order to qualify. The credibility of the signatures submitted by some candidates has been questioned. Gathering such a large number requires significant effort, which appeared to be lacking among candidates with minimal public support or recognition. Accusations have emerged suggesting that some of the signatures may have been bought.
The leading contenders include liberal candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, the Mayor of Warsaw and representative of the ruling Civic Coalition (KO), and Karol Nawrocki, a conservative and the president of the Institute of National Remembrance, running as an independent but backed by the opposition Law and Justice party (PiS).
Other candidates include Sławomir Mentzen (far-right populist, Konfederacja), Adrian Zandberg (from the left-wing Razem party), Szymon Hołownia (Speaker of the Sejm, representing Poland 2050 and PSL, both part of the governing coalition), and Magdalena Biejat (Speaker of the Senate, from The Left, also part of the ruling coalition).
Among the remaining candidates is Krzysztof Stanowski, a journalist and owner of Poland’s most popular YouTube channel, “Kanał Zero.” His campaign initially resembled that of President Zelensky, but unlike Zelensky, Stanowski is not running seriously – his campaign aims to highlight the absurdities of public life, politics, the media, and the electoral process in Poland.
Among the candidates with marginal support are Maciej Maciak (0-1% in a May 2015 IBRIS poll for Rzeczpospolita) and Grzegorz Braun (2.5% in the same poll). Both are known for their radical anti-establishment views and pro-Russian sympathies-particularly Maciak, who openly expresses such sentiments.
Scandals and the Ukraine issue
The election campaign is rife with populism, manipulation, and disinformation. Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees living in Poland have also become key issues.
The language and framing of the debate were set by the populist and far-right Konfederacja party. All mainstream candidates announced plans to limit the 800+ social benefit (approximately $210 per month per child) only to those who are employed. Under this proposal, unemployed refugees would lose access to the benefit. Currently, the allowance is paid to all Polish citizens and legally residing foreigners. While actual changes are unlikely, this rhetoric plays the minority card. Implementing such a policy would harm the most vulnerable – such as single mothers with children who have lost their jobs.
The employment rate among Ukrainians in Poland is nearly 80%, the highest in the EU. Throughout the campaign, there were also claims about social privileges for Ukrainians, which some candidates argued exceed those granted to Polish citizens – a claim that is not true.
An overwhelming majority of Polish society supports continued assistance to Ukraine.
As the campaign progressed, anti-Ukrainian sentiments among some candidates began to subside. The campaign teams of Trzaskowski and PiS seemed to realize that speaking in the language of the populist Konfederacja would not win them public sympathy – voters found such narratives unconvincing, given both PiS and KO governments have actively supported Ukraine. An overwhelming majority of Polish society supports continued assistance to Ukraine.
The ongoing campaign has been brutal, and scandals have emerged involving both main candidates. Karol Nawrocki was accused of potentially illegal and at the very least highly unethical enrichment at the expense of an elderly man, a lonely neighbor of the candidate. In exchange for care and financial help, the man transferred ownership of his apartment to Nawrocki. Journalists uncovered that the neighbor has long been living in a care facility and is receiving no support. The controversy deepens as Nawrocki opposes a property tax and had publicly lied about how many apartments he owns.
Kyiv Post sources connected to PiS claim that Nawrocki’s campaign team was unaware of how he acquired the apartment. The result was a major image crisis and conflicting public statements.
Rafał Trzaskowski, the KO candidate, was not spared from scandal either. Social media campaigns favorable to him and critical of Nawrocki and Mentzen appeared online. Journalists from Wirtualna Polska revealed that the NGO Akcja Demokracja was behind the promotional campaign supporting the ruling party’s candidate and attacking his opponents. The NGO reportedly spent more on ads than the campaign teams of both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki. This has led to serious accusations of illegal campaign financing.
Security and international relations
Throughout the campaign, security policy is being emphasized in all possible contexts. There are declarations about continued armament efforts – which Poland is indeed consistently pursuing across party lines – and commitments not to send troops to Ukraine as part of the Coalition of the Willing.
Despite this, there is a lack of honest debate on military training; politicians are reluctant to touch on the topic of conscription, and the issue of deploying a contingent is discussed without any real consideration of its potential benefits or risks. It seems that every candidate wants to have a hand in shaping the regional security architecture, but none appear bold enough to make unpopular decisions.
One challenge for the government and for Trzaskowski came from comments made by the special US envoy to Ukraine, Gen. Keith Kellogg, who mentioned the possibility of sending, among others, a Polish contingent – claims that the Polish authorities denied. Foreign policy primarily revolves around relations with the United States, which is regarded as a strategic ally.
Karol Nawrocki proposes positioning Poland as the European foundation of transatlantic relations. Trzaskowski speaks in similar terms, although his rivals accuse him and his political camp of making disparaging remarks about the MAGA administration, with which PiS maintains close ties. The KO candidate, like his political bloc, also advocates for deepening cooperation with the EU, including in the area of defense – a position in which he is seen as credible.
A threat to the election comes from Russian disinformation and cyberattacks, as Kyiv Post previously covered, but societal resilience is declining due to the high volume of fake news coming from the candidates themselves, as well as the excessive mutual accusations among Polish politicians of alleged ties to Russia. In fact, two candidates in the race express, more or less openly, sympathies toward Moscow – Maciej Maciak and Grzegorz Braun – but their support is minimal.
Support for Ukraine is expected to continue regardless of whether Trzaskowski or Nawrocki wins.
Polls and the stakes of the election
In the IBRiS poll for the daily newspaper Rzeczpospolita published on May 14, Rafał Trzaskowski leads with 32.6%, followed by Karol Nawrocki at 26.4%, while Sławomir Mentzen comes in third with support slightly above 10%. In the second-round run-off – which is almost certain to happen – Trzaskowski is also in the lead, though Nawrocki is narrowing the gap.
A similar situation occurred five years ago, when Trzaskowski was also ahead of Andrzej Duda in the polls but ultimately lost the election. The situation looks very different among younger voters, who are tired of the political establishment that has alternated in power for over 20 years. Among them, the highest support goes to the left-wing candidate Adrian Zandberg and the far-right populist Mentzen.
From an international perspective, particularly regarding Ukraine, the stakes of the election are relatively low. Regardless of whether Trzaskowski or Nawrocki wins, support for Ukraine is expected to continue, although the political climate might shift. It is worth noting that since 2022, all Polish governments – regardless of political affiliation – have maintained a consistent approach in this area. A Trzaskowski victory would likely mean closer cooperation with the EU, while Nawrocki would lean more toward alignment with the United States.
For the entire Polish political mainstream, Russia is seen unequivocally as an adversary and a threat, and national security is a matter of broad consensus.
Domestically, a Trzaskowski victory would mean greater effectiveness for the government. Poland’s political system is neither presidential like in the US or France, nor chancellor-based or cabinet-based like in Germany or the UK. The president has the power to weaken the government’s work through vetoes and by refusing to sign legislation. A Nawrocki win, on the other hand, would mean not only a deepening political conflict but also increased control over the government.
In short, this is an election about whether Prime Minister Tusk and his government will be able to fully exercise power. If the second-round results are very close, allegations of electoral fraud are almost certain to arise – although, despite numerous politically motivated accusations in the past, there has been no evidence of such practices in Poland. The second round of the presidential election will take place on June 1.