Ukraine may be left without US military assistance. On July 2 the Pentagon said aid to the US would be suspended – even weapons already earmarked under the Biden administration which had already been shipped.
Since then, there have been many statements that Ukraine and the US would continue cooperation, with reassurances from President Donald Trump after his conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky. However, this already happened once in March – after Zelensky’s Oval Office confrontation – and given the volatility of decisions by the current US administration, it could become a problem again.
So, how long can Ukraine hold out without American weapons? Which categories of supplies can be replaced, and which are critical?
“It’s unfair.”
First and foremost, the suspension of arms deliveries has had an effect on Ukrainian soldiers. Amid Russia’s militarized economy and the ramp-up of arms supplies, as well as its readiness to open a second front in Europe, Ukrainian resistance, even among Ukrainians themselves and particularly the military, is seen not just as Ukraine’s fight alone.
Russia is throwing its entire economy into military production. It buys related military goods from China, ammunition from North Korea, African countries, Iran, and others.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently noted that Russia has already maximized the import and production of weapons systems.
“Russia is rearming at a pace unprecedented in modern history. Right now, they produce three times more ammunition in three months than NATO does in a year. It’s unacceptable, but the Russians are cooperating with the North Koreans, Chinese, Iranians, mullahs – in this unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine,” Rutte said.
One of the battalion commanders of Ukraine’s defense forces, whose unit is armed with Western-made weapons, said: “We’re doing all the work NATO was preparing for throughout the Cold War. We’re grinding down the Russian army. And no NATO soldier has died. Even the weapons shipments aren’t that exhaustive or burdensome for Alliance countries. We’re essentially doing with limited Western weapons what the Americans were lucky not to have to do in World War III. The suspension of weapons supplies is unfair.”
He points out that there are two critical areas where Western weapons are used most heavily – artillery and field equipment, and air defense systems.
Air defense
One point of criticism toward the Trump administration regarding the suspension of arms deliveries is precisely the air defense systems, many of which use American components.
“The reason is very simple – Soviet systems have long been depleted. Full-scale war consumes everything. Even missiles for Soviet aircraft – we mostly use those of Western production,” said one officer in Ukraine’s air defense forces.
As a result of the delivery suspension, Ukraine is left without its key means of countering ballistic missile attacks – missiles for Patriot systems and 30mm Stinger missiles.
“Up to 70% of the Air Force and missile system weapons come from the US. Without Patriot missiles, we won’t be able to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles of any type,” says aviation expert and Doctor of Science Valerii Romanenko.
He adds that many systems were modified to work with American munitions. Now, even if Europe finds replacements, they may lose their utility.
Military analyst Oleh Katkov put it more simply when speaking about the lack of weapons for the Air Force and air defense: “The aircraft, especially the F-16s, can just be put into storage hangars, that’s all.”
Even the supply of small missiles like the Stinger is critical, as they are the best tool for shooting down Russian Shahed attack drones.
“The Stinger is a universal tool. If you can’t hit the Shahed with a machine gun and it’s already heading for its target, you fire the Stinger – and you don’t even need to watch. Stinger guarantees a 100% hit on a Shahed,” says one of the air defense officers.
Artillery
The situation is no less problematic in general military supplies. While armored vehicles such as HUMVEEs and M113s – essential for mobility and evacuation – can potentially be replaced by vehicles made in Ukraine, the issue with ammunition is far worse.
“We use up to 3.5 million artillery shells per year. Of those, we produce over a million ourselves, another million is produced for us by Europe, and around a million are supplied by the US. Even now, we don’t have enough. Without the US, we’ll lose a third of our firepower,” says Katkov.
How critical is this? Some soldiers we interviewed say drones could theoretically compensate for the shortage of artillery shells, as they already perform most of the strike tasks – up to 80% of all battlefield strikes. Still, artillery maintains unique functions that cannot be replaced.
“Firstly, a shell cannot be jammed or intercepted by electronic warfare. Yes, artillery is catastrophically less accurate than drones, but there are no barriers to a shell. It simply flies and explodes. Secondly, artillery can do what drones cannot – for instance, create a ‘fire wall’ or ‘barrage fire’ – essentially a death zone in the path of advancing enemy troops, which very effectively slows their advance,” says an officer from the Air Assault Forces.
Can it be replaced?
All forecasts regarding the replacement of weapons systems are rather unpredictable. For example, European production of missiles for Patriot systems won’t begin before 2027. Japan, although it currently produces Patriot missiles and, according to some reports, could supply them to Ukraine, only makes a few dozen per year, and even that with American components, which means US approval is still required.
Artillery shells could theoretically be replaced, but Europe and Ukraine would need to ramp up production to record levels. Even under such conditions, experts interviewed estimate this would take at least a year to a year and a half, giving Russia a huge advantage.
What all those interviewed by Kyiv Post agree on is that Ukraine has a certain stockpile of weapons. The only question is: for how long? Julian Röpcke, in his article for Bild, mentions timelines extending until the end of summer, but Kyiv Post sources doubt that he could know this for certain.
“No one will ever tell anyone that. There is a stockpile, but what it consists of and for which items – it’s unlikely that anyone knows besides the top military command, and they certainly won’t say,” one military source told Kyiv Post.