Russian authorities have warned that more than 100 foreign aircraft could be grounded in the coming years due to sanctions and a shrinking supply of spare parts.
By 2030, 109 foreign-made planes could be removed from service, Dmitry Yadrov, head of the Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya), told a meeting of the Federation Council’s Committee on Economic Policy, as per Russian media.
Western sanctions imposed after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 cut Moscow off from foreign-built aircraft and spare parts.
As a result, Russian airlines have been forced to keep a fleet of around 700 mostly Airbus and Boeing jets flying through shadowy import channels – or by “cannibalizing” other planes for parts.
“According to the pessimistic forecast, by 2030 we, together with the airlines, estimate the decommissioning of approximately 339 aircraft,” Yadrov said. “In addition, we plan to retire 200 helicopters – 190 domestic and 10 foreign.”
Alongside Boeing and Airbus aircraft being dismantled for parts, 230 domestically made planes – many 40 to 60 years old – will have to be scrapped.
Rosaviatsiya reports that Russia’s commercial fleet currently numbers 1,135 aircraft, of which 1,088 remain operational. Overall, civil aviation could lose a third of its fleet within six years, according to Yadrov.
To offset the loss of Western jets, Moscow has launched an ambitious effort to revive its domestic aviation industry, targeting production levels not seen since Soviet times, according to Reuters.
Factories were expected to produce five civilian aircraft in 2023, 40 in 2024, and 82 this year. But in reality, only 13 new aircraft were added between 2022 and 2025 – 12 Sukhoi Superjets and one Tu-214 – according to Reuters, citing Swiss aviation data firm ch-aviation.
This year alone, Russian manufacturers have delivered just one of the 15 passenger aircraft promised to airlines.
Notably, last month, a Russian aviation source that “a significant number” of the country’s Western-made Boeing and Airbus aircraft could soon be grounded as the fleet ages and key components remain unavailable.
Russian carriers have relied on complex “parallel import” networks to acquire spare parts, but this workaround has led to frequent technical failures, revealing the mounting strain on fleet maintenance under sanctions.
The result has been a sharp decline in flight safety. In 2024, Russia recorded its highest number of aviation incidents in six years and was flagged by ICAO with a “red” safety rating - the organization’s lowest.
Facing a surge in aviation incidents, Moscow has sought to lease aircraft from foreign partners. Last year, it appealed to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Kuwait, and Qatar, and in 2025 approached Ethiopia - but was rejected.
Mesfin Tasev, CEO of Ethiopian Airlines Group, said that the airline operates in accordance with international regulations and US laws and is not prepared to take the risk of violating them.
In late September, Russia urged global aviation leaders meeting in Montreal to lift sanctions on aircraft spare parts and overflight restrictions, claiming they threaten flight safety.
According to Reuters, Russian officials were pressing their case with regulators and delegates at the triennial assembly of the UN’s International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). In a paper seen by the agency, Russia argued that aviation sanctions violate global rules:
“Unlawful coercive measures violate the human right to freedom of movement regardless of nationality and citizenship,” the document read.
It continued that the ICAO “is required to take all practical measures to prevent states from applying politically biased discriminatory and coercive measures in the field of international civil aviation.”
Other Russian submissions criticized the closure of airspace in 37 countries to its airlines, along with bans on aircraft maintenance and insurance. Despite pushback, Moscow is reportedly seeking election to ICAO’s 36-member governing council.
Further compounding the crisis, Ukrainian drone strikes have repeatedly disrupted operations at Russian airports, grounding flights and forcing temporary shutdowns.
In July alone, at least one Russian airport was closed almost every day. Since the start of the year, flight restrictions have been imposed hundreds of times.