Nearly 2,000 Russian military sites would fall within range of Ukraine’s forces if Washington approves delivery of long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said, or more targets than missiles available.
The think tank said the extended-range Tomahawk variant could be employed to about 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles), which would put at least 1,945 Russian military targets in range. A shorter-range variant that could fly about 1,600 kilometers (994 miles) would reach roughly 1,655 targets.
Sites listed by ISW include a large Shahed drone factory in the Alabuga industrial zone in Tatarstan and scores of military airfields.
The report said 76 air bases would be reachable by the extended-range Tomahawks and 67 by the standard version. Engels-2, home to strategic bombers, was among the bases named that would be added.
Analysts said the missiles would let Ukraine strike deep into Russian rear areas and damage facilities that supply and support frontline operations. That capability, they say, could seriously disrupt Russia’s war effort.
George Barros, a Russia analyst with the ISW, told Kyiv Post that Ukraine has an “operational requirement of striking Russia’s intermediate and deep rear.”
He said that while existing domestic long-range weapons are available, they frequently “lack the payload capacity” necessary for meaningful strikes.
The Tomahawk cruise missile would directly address this gap by providing Kyiv a critical counter to Russia’s massive drone campaigns, which currently involve packages of over 500 Shahed drones every few days.
“If Ukraine had Tomahawk missiles, Ukraine could destroy the factory in Tatarstan that has the capacity to produce 2,700 of them monthly,” he noted on Monday.
Barros added that the missiles would ultimately degrade Russian logistics on the front lines and the near rear, through loss of logistical support.
US officials are weighing the request carefully. President Donald Trump said Monday he had “sort of made a decision” but wanted clearer answers about how the missiles would be used and which targets Ukraine would strike before giving final approval. Administration sources say any sale would come with strict conditions.
Analysts also point to practical limits. Sidharth Kaushal of the Royal United Services Institute said the United States produces only about 50 to 70 Tomahawks a year and has already used hundreds in past operations, which could limit how quickly large numbers could be supplied.
Additionally, some targets require multiple weapons, of any size payload. Any military airfield, for example, may have a couple of dozen desired mean points of impact (DMPIs) spread around a 3-kilometer-long (1.9-kilometer-long) runway, many of which could be hardened or protected underground.
Ukraine is also working on its own long-range cruise missile, the FP-5 “Flamingo,” with a reported range of about 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles). The ISW said the weapon is still new and that boosting production will take time.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that sending Tomahawks to Kyiv would mean a “whole new level of escalation” between the US and Russia.