Russia accused NATO on Wednesday of preparing a blockade of the Kaliningrad region as the alliance strengthens its military presence in the Baltic states.
Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said NATO forces are practicing scenarios involving the isolation of the Russian exclave during military exercises.
“The region is undergoing active militarization and being filled with coalition forces and equipment,” Grushko told the state-run newspaper Izvestia.
He claimed Moscow’s opportunities for dialogue to ease tensions were “extremely limited,” adding that Russia would defend its interests and security “through all available international and legal means.”
The remarks follow earlier warnings from senior Russian officials about NATO’s activities near Russian borders.
In October, Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said that for the second year in a row, “NATO is conducting its largest exercises” near Russian borders, practising offensive action scenarios along a wide stretch – “from Vilnius to Odesa.”
He said alliance drills include plans to seize Kaliningrad, block maritime routes in the Baltic and Black Seas, and strike bases housing Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces.
Patrushev claimed that Moscow would deliver an “immediate and crushing” response to any attack on the region.
“Kaliningrad would be gone in the first hours”
In July, US Army Europe and Africa Commander Gen. Christopher Donahue said NATO could capture Russia’s Kaliningrad region “in a timeframe that is unheard of.”
He added that the alliance had developed a plan to neutralize Russian defenses in Kaliningrad as part of its comprehensive new strategy known as the Eastern Flank Deterrence Line.
This plan aims to make NATO’s land forces stronger and help member countries work better together, especially when it comes to building and using military technology.
“We know what we have to develop, and the use case that we’re using is you have to [deter] from the ground,” he said.
“The land domain is not becoming less important, it’s becoming more important. You can now take down [anti-access, aerial-denial] A2AD bubbles from the ground. You can now take over sea from the ground. All of those things we are watching happen in Ukraine.”
Former NATO commander Ben Hodges went further, saying alliance forces could destroy Russian military targets in Kaliningrad “within hours” if Moscow attacked a NATO member.
“If Russia in 2025 attacked Poland the way it attacked Ukraine, NATO’s air and ground forces would wipe it out. You can be sure – Kaliningrad would be gone in the first hours. In the first hours – no Kaliningrad; all Russian military sites destroyed,” Hodges said, adding that NATO would also destroy Russian military facilities in occupied Sevastopol.
War scenario book sparks debate in Europe
Debate over potential NATO-Russia conflict has also intensified in Western Europe. On Oct. 8, Washington Post columnist George F. Will noted that a book envisioning a Russian invasion of the Baltic states in 2028 has become a bestseller in Germany.
The book, “If Russia Wins: A Scenario” by Carlo Masala, a professor of international politics at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, explores what could happen if Russia’s victory in Ukraine were “only the beginning.”
The 119-page book, published in London, has also gained popularity in the Netherlands but has not yet been released in the United States.
Meanwhile, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Oct. 7 that Russia appears to be accelerating its early-stage preparations for a potential future war with NATO.
The think tank said Moscow is now engaged in “coordinated preparatory actions to create the physical and psychological conditions” for possible military confrontation.
NATO on alert as reports warn Russia may attack within years
Western intelligence reports say Russia might try to attack a NATO country within the next five to seven years. Many officials worry that Russia could use the excuse of “protecting Russian-speaking people” to send troops into the Baltic states.
Michael Cecire, a defense and security researcher at RAND, a Washington-based think tank that often does studies for the Pentagon, recently warned a bipartisan group of lawmakers that Russia, according to a number of assessments by European allies, “may be able to launch an attack against NATO within the next 5-10 years.”
Because of these fears, NATO held Steadfast Defender 2024, its biggest military exercises since the Cold War. More than 90,000 troops from across the alliance took part, along with dozens of warships, aircraft, and tanks.
NATO’s Secretary General, Mark Rutte, warned that the Western defense alliance would respond with a “devastating” blow to any attack by Russia.
“If anyone were to miscalculate and think they can get away with an attack on Poland or on any other ally, they will be met with the full force of this fierce alliance,” Rutte told reporters on a visit to the Polish capital in March.