Russia could be earning up to $150 million a day in additional budget revenues from oil exports as the conflict in the Middle East drives up global prices and boosts demand for Russian crude.
According to calculations cited by the Financial Times (FT), Moscow has already received an estimated $1.3 billion to $1.9 billion windfall from oil export taxes after disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil supplies, pushed buyers to seek alternative supplies.
The surge in demand has been particularly strong in India and China, which increased imports of Russian crude as Middle Eastern shipments faced uncertainty.
Data from analytics firm Kpler shows Indian imports of Russian oil reached about 1.5 million barrels per day this week, up roughly 50% from early last month.
“Russia is the big winner of this conflict,” said Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia.
“If the current shipment schedules, market intelligence and cargo movements continue, total Russian crude arrivals for the full month could reach close to 2mn barrels per day,” he added.
Higher prices have marked a dramatic turnaround for Moscow. Earlier this year, falling oil prices and pressure from US sanctions had pushed Russian exports to their lowest level since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, according to the International Energy Agency.
Analysts say the current surge could significantly improve Russia’s budget position.
“The current high prices will help Russia to meet budget indicators this quarter and even start saving some money,” said Borys Dodonov of the Kyiv School of Economics.
Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have threatened to remove around 60 million tonnes of crude oil and 7 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas from global markets each month, according to Vaibhav Raghunandan of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
The turmoil has also driven Russian crude prices sharply higher. Analysts say Russian oil is now trading roughly $20-$30 per barrel above its average over the previous three months and in some cases is even being sold in India at a premium to Brent crude, reversing earlier discounts.
Each $10 increase in the monthly oil price can generate roughly $2.8 billion in additional revenue for Russian exporters, of which the state receives about $1.63 billion through taxation, said Sergey Vakulenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
At the current pace, Russia could receive between $3.3 billion and $4.9 billion in additional budget revenues by the end of the month if elevated prices persist, the FT’s report read.
Still, analysts caution that the windfall may only partially offset earlier losses. Russian energy revenues – largely derived from taxes on oil production – fell nearly 50% year-on-year in the first two months of 2026, sharply widening the country’s budget deficit.
The longer-term impact will depend on how long the Middle East crisis continues and whether sanctions pressure from the United States remains limited.
“If the crisis drags on, they will be fighting each other over Russian oil,” Vakulenko said.
Analysts say Russia could increase oil production if the Middle East crisis drags on. The country is currently producing about 300,000 barrels per day below its quota under OPEC+.
Ronald Smith, a former senior analyst at BCS Financial Group, a major Russian financial services company specializing in investment banking in Russia, and founder of Emerging Markets Oil and Gas Consulting Partners, which specializes in investments in the Russian petro-state, said Russia likely has additional capacity it could bring online.
“We believe that Russia has at least 400,000 barrels per day of production capacity available on a relatively short-term basis, but it might take several months to bring this volume online,” Smith said.
However, analysts note that Russia’s ability to expand output will depend on factors beyond its control, particularly the sanctions policy of the US.
“How far, and for how long the US is prepared to ease its strict sanctions on Russian oil exports remains unclear,” said Michael Moynihan, research director for Russia at Wood Mackenzie, “particularly while the war in Ukraine continues.”
Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev said the global economy was rediscovering the “systemic role” of Russian oil and gas, arguing that many countries – “primarily the US” – were recognizing Russia’s importance in stabilizing energy markets.
He made the remarks after economic meetings in Florida, criticizing Western sanctions as ineffective.
His comments come as fighting involving the US, Israel, and Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Amid rising prices, Washington temporarily allowed Russian crude already loaded on vessels to be delivered through April 11, according to AFP.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed the step was temporary and would not significantly benefit Moscow.
Russia has framed the move as proof Western economies still rely on its energy exports.
However, former US ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer told Kyiv Post that easing pressure on Russian energy exports risks boosting Moscow’s revenues during the war in Ukraine.