EU officials are discussing contingency plans in case Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán wins another term, with diplomats considering a range of measures to prevent him – or other dissenting leaders – from disrupting the bloc’s decision-making.
Ten unnamed EU diplomats told Politico that ideas under discussion include changing voting rules, increasing financial pressure, and, in extreme scenarios, suspending Hungary’s rights within the bloc.
Hungary heads to the polls on April 12, with the opposition Tisza Party led by Péter Magyar ahead of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in the polls. However, EU officials are preparing for a scenario in which the long-serving leader retains power.
Orbán has long frustrated EU partners, most recently by blocking a vital loan for Ukraine – a move that drew sharp criticism from European Council President António Costa.
“Nobody can blackmail the European Council, nobody can blackmail the European institutions,” Costa said. “It is completely unacceptable what Hungary is doing.”
Tensions have been further fueled by allegations that Budapest maintained contacts with Moscow during EU meetings, including claims that Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó briefed his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov during breaks in EU meetings.
“If Orbán wins the election, the gloves will come off,” one senior EU diplomat warned.
Below are the five main scenarios under discussion:
1. Expand majority voting to sidestep veto power
One of the most widely discussed options is expanding qualified majority voting (QMV) into areas that currently require unanimity, such as foreign policy and parts of the EU’s long-term budget.
Diplomats say this would allow decisions to pass without being blocked by a single country.
“If you want to react quickly, you need more decisions taken by QMV,” one diplomat said.
However, the move would mark a major shift away from unanimity – a core principle of EU governance – and could face resistance from member states concerned about sovereignty.
2. Greater use of flexible formats
Another proposal involves greater use of flexible formats, including coalitions of willing countries or enhanced cooperation among smaller groups.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has supported such approaches in certain policy areas.
“Our ambition should always be to reach agreement among all 27 member states,” she said, while acknowledging that smaller groupings may sometimes be necessary.
Still, diplomats caution that such arrangements cannot fully replace EU-wide consensus and risk undermining unity.
3. Turn the purse strings into political leverage
Brussels is also considering tougher enforcement tools, including withholding EU funds from countries that violate rule-of-law standards.
“Respect for the rule of law is essential for access to EU funds,” said European Commissioner Michael McGrath.
Such conditionality mechanisms are already part of proposals for the EU’s next long-term budget.
However, diplomats note that financial penalties must be legally justified and directly linked to misuse of EU funds – not political disagreements. Hungary has already signaled it could veto any tighter conditions.
4. Article 7 pressure – suspending Hungary’s vote
The EU has already triggered Article 7 proceedings against Hungary, which could ultimately suspend Hungary’s voting rights if the country is found to have breached core EU values.
Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said even pursuing the process creates pressure.
“Even pushing for Article 7 creates pressure on Hungary – they got really nervous,” he said.
But the measure is difficult to implement, as it requires unanimous backing from other member states – something currently blocked by Slovakia.
5. Kicking Hungary out of the EU
The most extreme – and widely seen as unrealistic – option is expelling Hungary from the EU.
There is no legal mechanism for this under current treaties, though some legal experts have suggested creative workarounds.
“Expulsion is not in the treaties, and I don’t see our interest in doing so,” one diplomat said, warning that such a move could push Hungary closer to Russia.
Despite the range of options, diplomats remain divided on how far the EU should go.
“We are the EU, and we have to preserve unity,” one diplomat said.
Still, with Orbán’s repeated clashes with Brussels – and his latest block on Ukraine funding seen by many as a “red line” – officials acknowledge that pressure is mounting for a more decisive response.
EU skeptical of real changes even if Orban loses
Several EU officials told Reuters they would welcome Orbán’s loss in April’s election, but remain skeptical that Budapest would significantly shift its stance on key issues where it frequently clashes with the bloc.
“I think everybody hopes Orbán will lose,” one EU diplomat said.
Another described Orbán’s last-minute veto of the €90 billion ($104 billion) financial package for Kyiv as “the last straw that broke the camel’s back.”
“On our side, the hope to talk reason into Orbán is gone,” the diplomat added.
Still, officials say the EU is preparing for the possibility that Orbán remains in power – and may increasingly sideline Hungary to work around its repeated vetoes.
“If Orbán stays, we will have to change how we work,” a European official said.
“It seems that ‘more of the same’ is no longer an option for most EU countries,” added former Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš.
Despite Magyar pledging closer alignment with the EU and NATO, diplomats expressed doubt that a change in leadership would bring major policy shifts.
“I have very few illusions about Magyar’s worldview. We should be careful not to expect too much,” one diplomat said. “The difference will be more in tone of voice than substance.”
“Magyar is from the same political family [as Orbán], nobody is expecting a revolution,” another added.
Former European Commission Vice President Věra Jourová struck a more cautious note, suggesting a Magyar victory could “renew the chance of unity on basic security matters.”
On Ukraine, however, Magyar has also opposed Kyiv’s rapid accession to the EU – a position similar to Orbán’s, his adviser told Reuters.
“But the difference,” the adviser said, “is that Orbán used this to blackmail [the EU] and represent the Russian interest. We will represent the Hungarian interest.”