Russia is preparing a new ground offensive in southeastern Ukraine and aims to capture the entirety of the Donbas by September, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence.
Speaking to the Financial Times (FT) last Friday, Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of the Ukrainian military’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), said Moscow is reinforcing its battlefield presence and escalating long-range strikes.
Skibitsky revealed that Russia is deploying an additional 20,000 troops from its strategic reserve, bringing the total number of Russian forces inside Ukraine to around 680,000.
At the same time, Moscow is intensifying its missile campaign. Russia is producing approximately 60 Iskander missiles per month and has expanded its launcher capacity, increasing pressure on Ukrainian air defenses.
He warned that Ukraine remains short of advanced systems such as the US-made Patriot, leaving critical infrastructure – particularly energy facilities heavily damaged during winter strikes – highly vulnerable.
According to Skibitsky, the growing scale of missile and drone attacks is part of a broader strategy to degrade Ukraine’s infrastructure and shape the battlefield ahead of the planned spring-summer offensive.
The intelligence assessment shared with the FT indicates that Russia’s objective is to seize the entire Donbas region by September.
Skibitsky, who is also involved in Ukraine’s peace negotiations, said these preparations signal that Moscow is not seriously pursuing talks but is instead continuing to prioritize military gains.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on March 31 that Russia has effectively issued Ukraine a two-month ultimatum: withdraw from Donbas or face tougher peace terms.
Speaking to journalists, Zelensky said Moscow conveyed to the United States that it expects to capture eastern Ukraine within that timeframe and is demanding Kyiv pull out in advance.
He dismissed the proposal as unrealistic and questioned why such demands are still being taken seriously.
“I am surprised how anyone can believe this… after so many years, they continue pushing this narrative,” he said.
Zelensky also pointed out contradictions in Russia’s position, noting that its broader rhetoric goes beyond Donbas.
“If their goal is only Donbas, why do they say they will go further and impose other conditions?” he said.
He rejected Moscow’s claim that it could seize the region within two months.
His remarks came as US-led peace talks with Russia remained stalled, with Washington increasingly shifting its focus to the war in Iran.
Zelensky has previously rejected a US proposal which, he said, would involve Ukraine giving up parts of Donbas in exchange for security guarantees.