The Kremlin currently has no plans to initiate a new mobilization wave despite growing frontline losses and troop shortages, The Guardian reported, citing sources familiar with internal Russian discussions.
There are no indications that Russian President Vladimir Putin has authorized a new large-scale draft. An unnamed Western official confirmed the absence of preparations for a mobilization.
The Kremlin is reportedly relying on volunteer recruitment through Ministry of Defense contracts to avoid the political risks associated with forced conscription.
However, human rights advocate Alexei Tabalov stated that finding individuals willing to fight is becoming increasingly difficult, despite significant financial incentives.
An employee of a Russian recruiting agency confirmed this trend, stating that the organization is required to recruit 20 to 30 men per month to avoid financial penalties. The recruiter, speaking anonymously, noted that meeting these quotas has become harder compared to the previous year.
While internal discussions about a potential mobilization occur, the recruiter said there are no official orders or signs of an imminent draft.
Risks of a second mobilization
International analysts suggest that a large-scale mobilization carries significant risks for the Russian government.
Commentary published by the German business daily Handelsblatt indicated that a new draft could negatively impact the Russian economy by removing more workers from the labor force and could lead to public dissatisfaction, similar to the reaction following the initial mobilization in September 2022.
Reports suggest Moscow is seeking alternative methods to bolster its forces without resorting to a domestic draft.
According to the Polish daily Rzeczpospolita, North Korea has deployed between 30,000 and 50,000 troops to Russia.
Analysts indicate this deployment is intended to provide the Kremlin with additional personnel and delay the necessity of a second mobilization wave.