Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans has warned that Russia could mass hundreds of thousands of troops near the borders of the Baltic states under the guise of military exercises, which could in fact serve as cover for a sudden attack.
Russia could carry out a “large-scale” troop deployment approximately a year after a ceasefire or peace agreement in Ukraine, Defense News reported on March 27, citing a speech by Brekelmans at a security conference, where he referred to assessments by the Dutch military intelligence service.
Brekelmans emphasized that the experience of the war in Ukraine has shown how military exercises can rapidly evolve into a real offensive — often becoming clear only days before a potential attack.
In its February report, the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) stated that if the war in Ukraine ends, Russia will be able to redeploy significant military forces to other regions. According to their forecasts, Moscow could be ready to wage a regional war in the Baltic Sea area within two years of a ceasefire or the end of hostilities in Ukraine.
“We don’t know exactly how Putin will test NATO,” Brekelmans said. “We do know that if Putin, after Ukraine, attacks a neighboring country that is in NATO, then we are part of it. Then the Netherlands must also help defend NATO territory. Our membership of NATO provides the Netherlands protection, but also a responsibility. An attack on one is an attack on all.”
The minister also pointed to the growing threat of hybrid warfare. The Netherlands faces daily cyberattacks on hospitals and seaports, as well as espionage and intelligence activities — including incidents involving unidentified drones and vessels monitoring critical infrastructure in the North Sea.
Defense News reported that in response to the growing Russian threat, the Netherlands is reinforcing its military presence in the Baltic region. Dutch troops are already stationed in Lithuania as part of a NATO mission, and F-35 fighter jets will continue patrolling the airspace over the Baltic states.
Moreover, the Netherlands has announced a major expansion of its armed forces: over the next five years, military personnel is expected to increase from 74,000 to 100,000, with a long-term goal of reaching 200,000 — the largest increase since the end of the Cold War.
Brekelmans said Putin has repeatedly expressed his desire for revenge over the collapse of the Soviet Union and to restore its sphere of influence. The Dutch minister said that Russia continues to invest heavily in its war industry and the recruitment of soldiers.
He added that the Russian economy is now fully centered around the war effort, and the country will face “a big problem” when thousands of soldiers return to civilian life suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder.
“In short, Putin has the intention, capabilities and incentives to continue his aggression beyond Ukraine,” Brekelmans said.