The Warsaw Security Forum, an invitation-only meeting of heads of politicians, analysts and senior officials, is being held for the 12th time on Monday and Tuesday. At the end of day one, what do we know?
President Volodymyr Zelensky gave a wide-ranging speech about the threat posed by Russia, which has been increasingly discussed in European capitals since the incursion of 19 Russian drones deep into Polish airspace in the early hours of Sept. 10.
A string of serious incidents followed, including the violation of Estonian airspace by three Russian fighter jets.
Aptly, the president stressed the need for a unified response from Ukraine and its neighbors – proposing a “joint, truly reliable shield against Russian aerial threats.”
One of the major themes of this 12th Warsaw Security Forum is “divided we fall.”
“If Russia loses the ability to strike in the skies, it will be unable to continue the war and will have to look for other ways to coexist,” he said.
Moldova, Georgia, and Belarus
Zelensky also congratulated Moldova on re-electing a majority pro-European parliament on Sunday, despite compelling evidence of Russian interference – unlike Georgia, which he said was currently falling away from Europe.
“Maybe one day it will return, but for that, Europe must not close its eyes to what is happening there – and in Belarus. Every gain for Russia in our region is always a loss for Europe. That is why we cannot afford to lose a single day or a single country. After Moldova’s elections, we must keep supporting Moldova.”
Salomé Zourabichvili, Georgia’s former pro-European president, also highlighted Georgia’s need during the day’s events. “We are still on the streets, but we need more attention and support from the EU,” she said.
Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya likewise argued that Europe cannot afford to abandon her country, which she described as “key” to European security.
“As long as [Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko] remains in power, threats and provocations against our democratic neighbors will continue,” she added.
On the sidelines
Between events, Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot discussed several issues – including tougher economic sanctions on Russia, the use of Russia’s frozen assets in Europe to fund Ukraine’s war effort, additional military support in the form of co-producing drones, and the Coalition of the Willing’s planned security guarantees for post-war Ukraine.
During another event, Barrot emphasized that Russia’s war effort is stagnating. “Russia is failing militarily, failing economically, failing politically. It has been three years since it advanced the frontline and its civil economy has collapsed.”
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told attendees that Germany is planning to send Ukraine a further two Patriot missile defense systems by the end of the year, with help from Norway.
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, meanwhile, revealed details of a bilateral meeting he held with his Chinese counterpart earlier this month – including the fact that Warsaw has asked Beijing to intervene on its behalf with its Russia-aligned neighbor, Belarus.
Sikorski also warned that Russia is escalating its “hybrid war” against Europe.
“Russians were testing us. Our government, our society, and our alliance all have worked. Russia made a mistake by sending the drones into Poland,” he said.
International organizations
NATO and the EU were well-represented during the first day of the Warsaw Security Forum.
NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska participated in a panel discussion, taking the opportunity to reiterate NATO’s commitment to defending its eastern flank.
Shekerinska pointed to its newly launched Operation Eastern Sentry, which was announced on Sept. 12 in response to Russia’s violation of NATO airspace. She described the operation as a way for the transatlantic alliance to be “more flexible and yet stronger, wherever and whenever we are needed.”
Nevertheless, Shekerinska emphasized the need for further support for Ukraine itself as well as its European neighbors to counter Russia’s “irresponsible and reckless” behavior.
Space and Defense Commissioner for the European Commission, Andrius Kubilius, called for Europe to learn from Ukraine as well as to support it – pointing to deficiencies in Europe’s drone response.
“Our capabilities in detecting and destroying drones need to be rounded up and he can learn a lot from Ukraine,” he said.
The Council of Baltic Sea States – a smaller but by no means unimportant international organization – was represented by its secretariat, Gustav Lindstrom of Sweden, who took the opportunity to warn that the Baltic Sea is becoming a “chessboard for hybrid warfare.”
Swedish Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin called for new measures to protect Baltic Sea infrastructure, adding that the situation in the Baltic Sea reflects the “dire security situation” in which Europe now finds itself.
Also on Monday, Zelensky alleged during his speech that Russia may have used tankers in the Baltic Sea to launch the drones which have disrupted Oslo and Copenhagen – among other northern European cities – in recent weeks.