Russia could eventually disintegrate like the Soviet Union, as not all of its peoples joined the federation voluntarily, according to Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office.
Speaking in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, Yermak said that even Russians themselves understand that, regardless of their country’s vast size, Ukrainian forces can reach anywhere.
“The war has already come to their territory. Any empire, any dictatorship, is built on violence. There are those who submit to it for various reasons – interests, benefits, or fear. But there are also many, even the majority, who are simply afraid,” Yermak said.
He noted that “fear inevitably weakens” once an empire begins to “shake and crack at the seams.” That’s when, he added, “completely unexpected scenarios begin to emerge – and that moment is not far away.”
Yermak described the Russian Federation as a distorted version of the Soviet Union, predicting that it may share the same fate.
“Formally, the Russian Federation is supposedly a voluntary union of nations. But how voluntary is it really? Not everyone joined willingly – and not everyone is happy there. The Russian Federation is a parody of the USSR. And I wouldn’t rule out that it could follow the same path to collapse,” he said.
The Soviet Union, a communist superstate that existed from 1922 to 1991, included 15 republics under Moscow’s control. Political and economic crises eventually led to its dissolution and the independence of its member states, including Ukraine and Russia.
The presidential chief also remarked that while Moscow often portrays itself as a friend to many countries, the world is well aware of the real value of such “friendship.”
No one wishes victory to the aggressor state. Everyone, even China, understands what Russia would be like if it gained unlimited power, Yermak added.
In August, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) chief Kyrylo Budanov also addressed the issue of a potential Russian collapse, saying that while such a scenario was theoretically possible, it remains unlikely in the near term.
“If we hypothetically speak about what could happen in the event of Russia’s defeat and subsequent fragmentation – yes, it’s possible. But as of now, the scenario in which Russia is divided into several parts is unrealistic. I’m talking about the situation ‘here and now,’” Budanov said.
Budanov cautioned against premature speculation about post-collapse scenarios — including concerns over the control of Russia’s nuclear arsenal – noting that the Kremlin’s internal system remains deeply entrenched.
“The Russian system is quite resilient. Even if the leader of the Russian state were to disappear, nothing would fundamentally change. The system was built so that any successor would remain within the same ideological paradigm,” the intelligence chief added.