Russia’s expanding air and missile defense systems could be capable of intercepting British and French nuclear weapons within the next decade, potentially undermining Europe’s nuclear deterrent.
As per Politico, citing a new report by the UK-based defense think tank RUSI, Russia is steadily strengthening its air defense shield, particularly around Moscow, its capital, in ways that could challenge the ability of Europe’s two nuclear powers to retaliate effectively in the event of a conflict.
Unlike the US, which maintains a broad and diversified nuclear arsenal, both the UK and France rely largely on relatively small numbers of submarine-launched nuclear warheads.
If Russia were able to replicate interception rates similar to those achieved by Israel and the US in 2024 - when roughly 90 percent of two large Iranian ballistic missile barrages were reportedly shot down – a limited British or French strike might fail to achieve its intended strategic impact, the report reads.
Sidharth Kaushal, the RUSI report’s author, said the ability to strike Moscow is central to the credibility of Europe’s independent nuclear deterrents.
He cautioned that this credibility could come under increasing strain as US extended deterrence faces growing pressure, particularly from China.
As pointed out by Politico, while NATO remains the cornerstone of Europe’s nuclear deterrence, countries including France, Germany and Sweden have shown growing interest in strengthening Europe’s own role amid doubts about whether the US would respond to a Russian attack.
Debate over a more coordinated European nuclear framework has intensified following the expiry of the New START treaty, as Russia and China expand their arsenals and the Kremlin continues nuclear threats linked to the war in Ukraine.
Notably, on Feb. 24, the fourth anniversary of Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed that the UK and France were planning to disguise the transfer of nuclear technology to Kyiv as a domestic Ukrainian development, allegedly using covert European components.
Russian media citing SVR’s statement speculated about the possible use of a French TN75 warhead designed for the M51 submarine-launched ballistic missile.
Moscow also claimed that Germany had declined to participate, while Russia’s Federation Council called on the UN Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to investigate the alleged plan.
No evidence has been provided to support the accusations.
Nevertheless, senior Russian officials publicly reacted to the claims. Former President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, warned on Telegram that transferring nuclear technology to Ukraine would amount to supplying nuclear weapons to a country engaged in active hostilities.
“In such a scenario, Russia will be forced to use any weapon, including non-strategic nuclear weapons, against targets in Ukraine that pose a threat to our country,” Medvedev wrote, adding that Moscow could also target supplier states if necessary.
He described such a move as a “direct path to world war.”
State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin echoed the warning, saying the lower house would discuss the issue and prepare an appeal to the parliaments of Britain and France.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the alleged plan a “flagrant violation of international law,” saying the information would be taken into account in negotiations on Ukraine.
Ukrainian Telegram channels dismissed the claims as provocations ahead of planned talks. Observers also noted practical obstacles: the UK does not possess standalone nuclear bombs, relying instead on Trident II D5 missiles deployed on Vanguard-class submarines, while France’s arsenal consists of M51 submarine-launched missiles and ASMPA cruise missiles carried by Rafale fighter jets.
Ukraine, for its part, does not operate long-range strategic bombers capable of deploying such weapons.
Some Ukrainian commentators described the SVR’s statement as a fabrication aimed at disrupting negotiations and driving a wedge between the US and Europe over continued support for Kyiv.